RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
(2018-04-25, 02:11 PM)BarnabeBear Wrote: Thanks again grbaNT for your analysis. Heavy work you're pulling here !
In spite of Friday's and yesterday's trading sessions in the US I still don't see any valid reason to pull out of the market. The breadth analysis indicators (SW's chapter 8, and especially the ADLine) still hold in my humble opinion. And your Nyse survey is no different.
We'll see how this pans out but I would be surprised (and disappointed) if we were to plunge more deeply than what we are seing these days.
I am glad that you looked at the Survey. I agree with your observation. AD line is bullish, indices are still trading above major support, especially 200 DMA, and percentage of stocks above 150/200 DMA improved, too. In the latest update, as well as in the last several updates, I observed that both bulls and bears have a lot to prove (whipsaw environment) and that the Survey has advanced last week but not to the extent that confirms improvements in other market breadth indicators. This is where I find the greatest value of the Survey. The Survey rates stocks according to their overall technical quality not only to where they are versus DMAs or have they closed up on that day or not. In whipsaw environment both AD line and percentage of stocks may whipsaw. On the other hand, when the Survey moves hard, say 5 or more % in a week, in the opposite direction versus the direction it had during the previous longer period than you can reliably enough assume that something has changed in the markets. This is why I like to see improvement/deterioration of AD line and percentage of stocks above 150/200 DMA confirmed by the Survey. We did not get that confirmation last week, the Survey is still below 50%, hence, caution is advised. When we get that hard move up, as I believe we will get the move up and not the move down, we will have enough time to put more cash to work.
And again, I really appreciate you look at the Survey.
Best