[goodtyneguy]

I still have Sugar in Stage 4B-, possibly 1A personally

I agree on the weekly chart and I know that in your experience you have found that some of the commodities act like stocks, IIRC it was some of the precious metals. However, looking at sugars "personality" do you not think it would be prudent to do stage analysis using the daily chart as Weinstein recommends on futures with the shorter cycles?

I've had a look back in Chapter 9 to refresh my memory on this one, and Weinstein does recommend a much more active approach with commodities futures, and to trade off of the daily chart with a 40 day MA instead of the usual setup, and so the Stage Analysis would be much more speeded up. However, doing a Stage Analysis on the daily Sugar chart only with a 40 day MA, and Relative Performance versus the Continuous Commodity Index ($CCI), I would still only class it as a daily Stage 1 / Stage 1B, as it's forming a Stage 1 head and shoulders pattern base currently and Relative Performance is still below the zero line and it's previous swing high, as well as price not clearing the top of the Stage 1 base yet. So on the spot price chart I'd suggest it needs to breakout above the 0.173 level that I've marked as the top of the Stage 1 range on the chart, to move into Stage 2A and complete the head and shoulders base. Which would give a swing target to 0.186.

Note: In the book that the orange juice example never touched the 40 day MA throughout it's Stage 2 advance (p333) and stayed well above it throughout. Whereas currently the recent swing low in Sugar is still below the 40 day MA.

Attached are the charts, and I've included the SGG daily and point and figure charts as that looks like the trading vehicle with most volume on the US market other than the futures contract. I've also dropped in the daily chart on the previous Cocoa post so that you can compare, as Cocoa is in Stage 2 on the daily chart.

Right, good well reasoned and presented argument, so I was a bit premature on the stage 2A call. I started to accumulate as an investor (honestly) when it first broke above 17.08, so it was in stage 1 then. What give me confidence was going back five years or so, every time a swing high which closed above a flattened 40 dma was exceeded, the last swing low before this event marked a bottom. Another thing I was mindful of is that if turned on a sixpence and accelerated higher like it has done on a few occasions in the past I would not have been able to get in unless I had buy stop in place. Something interested traders should pay attention too in my opinion. OK, that's it, I think I've now validated having took a position in sugar. Thanks for the in depth analysis isatrader for both this and cocoa, a good learning experience for all imo.