[marry123]

Re: Still no trigger to go long the stock market based on stage analysis.

Hi all,

I have missed the entire recent rally in stocks following Stan's method. If one is disciplined one will wait until the SPX breaks above a rising 30 EMA to start going long stocks. I wonder, would one go long some stocks if they are above a rising 30 ema now even if the SPX is not above a rising 30 EMA? Unless I misunderstood, Stan advised to start buying individual stocks only when the stock market was back above a rising 30 ema weekly.

I have scanned for myself stock market bottom (bull market) charts from Stan's book (attached) to remind me of when to start buying stocks. It does hurt having to wait for the market to break above a rising 30 EMA to start entering stocks when one sees such a huge rally as we saw recently where folks made more money in a week or two than many will make in a few years.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Its the Simple MA 30, rather than exponential ma. Does it hurt? yes especially given how far we are away from the sma, however if stocks were to start tanking again, we'd be justifying to ourselves how right we were to follow his method.
we haven't really tested the lows yet to be able to say we've had a bottom and therefore I think its far too early to say
the method is rock solid, over countless years its proved itself as being an incredibly effective entry criteria
i'd happily wait, and wait some more to get a proper confirmation that its safe to start pumping money into equities right now
if anything i'd be looking to other markets. however cash is king right now

Thank you Malaguti for pointing out it is the 30 MA weekly not the 30 EMA. I wonder why I thought it was the 30 EMA as looking at Stan's book right now it clearly says "30 MA" on the weekly.
I agree, one needs to continue to wait to see if the stock market breaks above a rising 30 MA weekly regardless of how much of the rally one has missed so far. I am usually a good contrarian indicator as when the market crashed to around 2200 S+P I thought it would keep crashing to at least 1800 and now that we had this big 50% retrace the emotions in me tell me that it will just keep ripping higher as the Fed keeps pumping QE. 


Good to hear you are also waiting for a proper buy signal for the stock market and that I am not the only one who missed the big bounce so far ( I had various stocks on my watchlist a few weeks back that have now bounced roughly 40%-75%).