Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis - Page 9

#65

Market Breadth Update

Attached is the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index.

All the changes happened in the short term charts this week with the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 50 day moving averages reversing back to a column of Os. The S&P 500 and Dow Percentage of Stocks above their 50 day moving averages also moved to a column of Os and so we have multiple "Bear Alerts" in the short term moving average breadth charts now, as well as the Bear Alert on the medium term NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day moving averages chart. So we are seeing more bearish signs in these gauges to be aware of, and hence a cautious approach is still warranted imo.

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#66

RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Discussion Thread

Attached is the updated major equity index charts and relative performance table

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US Stock Indexes

               

European Stock Indexes

       



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isatrader

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#67

Gold, Copper, Crude Oil - GC, HG, CL

Attached is the updated major commodities charts, Gold (GC), Copper (HG) and West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL).



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isatrader

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#68

Dollar Index and the VIX

Dollar Index (DX) and the Volatility Index (VIX). The Dollar is meeting strong resistance around the 83 zone, but continues to trade well above it's 10 and 30 week MA's.



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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#69

US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries

Attached is the updated US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries charts. both have rebounded strongly off of the lows over the last few weeks, and the 10 year is now testing the Stage 4 breakdown level and the 50 day MA. There's a lot of near term resistance, but I'm noticing a divergence in the cumulative volume at the bottom of the chart which made a higher low when the price action made a lower low a few weeks back. So this one could be having some short term selling exhaustion, and might want to test back into the Stage 3 range again. The 30 year is making a similar move but is weaker as it is still below it's breakdown level. The cumulative volume is making the same divergence though and so is definitely something to watch imo.



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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#70

US Industry Sectors

Attached is the updated US Industry Sectors weekly and daily charts, and also the relative performance table which had a number of changes this week. The most notable of which was Consumer Staples (XLP) breaking above it's Mansfield relative performance zero line to move to 5th place. Financials (XLF) still maintains the top spot in the table, whereas Technology (XLK) stays at the bottom for another week.

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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#71

S&P 500 / Commodities Ratio

Stocks are now favoured over commodities for the first time since the breakdown in 2000. So the current Stage 2 breakout could be a significant long term shift in the market cycle to a period favouring equities.

Stocks have underperformed commodities for 12 years, and for the last 5 years have been forming a long term Stage 1 base. This month they've completed a Stage 2 breakout above the previous highs in 2008 which they've been unable to get above until this month. The 30 month MA has also turned up and so commodities look to be on the decline versus stocks and so we could be seeing the beginnings of a long term shift back to stocks.

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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#72

US Industry Sectors Breadth

There was three status changes this week in the sector breadth charts with two sectors (Financials and Health Care) moving back above their 10 week weighted MA and Utilities moving below it's 10 week weighted MA. Overall it was mostly an up week with 7 of the 9 sectors rising, but Basic Materials continued to decline, and dropped below it's 50% level. Industrials remains the strongest sector followed by Financials which have both been consistently outperforming so far this year.

So overall it remains very mixed in the sectors with a slight bullish bias still, but with over half of the sectors in the overbought zone currently.

Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the overall NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages, plus the 1% P&F chart and line chart of the nine sectors.

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isatrader

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