[marry123]

This is the big weakness with the stage analysis method after a market crash, having to wait and watch stocks go up 50-75%+ waiting for the S+P to get over the 30 MA weekly. My worry now is that it makes it over the 30 MA weekly as more and more get bullish then it takes the next leg lower which would mean the smart money bought in March on extremely oversold indicators and made huge returns while stage analysis folks who follow the Weinstein method religiously sit and continue to wait and then risk buying right before the next leg lower (if there is to be a next leg lower).

Hi Marry, I'd reiterate what ISA has just mentioned
if you look at other markets you should be seeing Bonds, Gilts and gold all doing exceptionally well which isn't surprising as equities stumble the more defensive side of your portfolio should be in play whilst the equity markets catch up. 
I see technology (Nasdaq) sector in stage 1
diversification is key in my opinion

Thanks Malaguti, you are 100% correct.

[isatrader]

Thanks, Isa. If you have any Canadian stocks on your radar that you think fit the bill that are either in early stage 2 or in stage 1 with potential for breaking out please post them if you can.

All the best Canadian stocks that I see currently are the gold mining stocks, which are popping up in my scans daily. Loads of them are setting up and could be at buy points soon following the the current pullback in gold. Focus some of your effort there and you'll find some that might be tradable soon.

Here's some from a quick manual scan through the gold mining charts that are interesting and could potentially setup:

AKG.TO, AEM.TO, AGI.TO, AZM.V, BSX.TO, BTO.TO, CAL.TO, CEE.TO, CG,TO, CXB.TO, DPM.TO, ELD.TO, FNV.TO, GBR.V, GCM.TO, GOLD.TO, IMG.TO, K.TO, KL.TO, KOR.TO, LGD.TO, LUG.TO, LUN.TO, MAG.TO, MND.TO, MNT.TO, NG.TO, NGT.TO, OSK.TO, PAAS.TO, PGM.V, ROXG.TO, SBB.TO, SEA.TO, SSRM.TO, SVM.TO, TGZ.TO, TXG.TO, VGCX.TO, VGZ.TO, VSR.V, WDO.TO, WPM.TO, YRI.TO

[marry123]

Thanks, Isa. If you have any Canadian stocks on your radar that you think fit the bill that are either in early stage 2 or in stage 1 with potential for breaking out please post them if you can.

All the best Canadian stocks that I see currently are the gold mining stocks, which are popping up in my scans daily. Loads of them are setting up and could be at buy points soon following the the current pullback in gold. Focus some of your effort there and you'll find some that might be tradable soon.

Here's some from a quick manual scan through the gold mining charts that are interesting and could potentially setup:

AKG.TO, AEM.TO, AGI.TO, AZM.V, BSX.TO, BTO.TO, CAL.TO, CEE.TO, CG,TO, CXB.TO, DPM.TO, ELD.TO, FNV.TO, GBR.V, GCM.TO, GOLD.TO, IMG.TO, K.TO, KL.TO, KOR.TO, LGD.TO, LUG.TO, LUN.TO, MAG.TO, MND.TO, MNT.TO, NG.TO, NGT.TO, OSK.TO, PAAS.TO, PGM.V, ROXG.TO, SBB.TO, SEA.TO, SSRM.TO, SVM.TO, TGZ.TO, TXG.TO, VGCX.TO, VGZ.TO, VSR.V, WDO.TO, WPM.TO, YRI.TO

Thanks, Isa. Much appreciate it!

[pcabc]

Regarding the 10 and 30 day EMAs - did you pick those for a reason, do they have any special significance?

There was a reason. But I can't remember exactly now as I set it up around 10 years ago. But I do know the McClellan Oscillator https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mcc...llator.asp is made up of the 19 day EMA and the 39 day EMA of the advance decline line data. So the 10 and 30 day EMAs that I use are just a bit faster and obviously tie in with Stage Analysis.

I think with things like these you could use any combination of short and medium term MAs and the results wouldn't be much different. i.e isn't the MACD a 12 day EMA – 26 day EMA for example.

I thought I had replied to this but obviously lost it when correcting something else.  I notice you use the McClellan, both the oscillator and the summation index in your breadth charts.  Do you find them useful? 

There might be merit in myself using these in by breadth scoring as at the moment I'm comparing the advance / decline line with various moving averages, the McClellan oscillator and summation index would make this a little less arbitrary.

[isatrader]

I thought I had replied to this but obviously lost it when correcting something else.  I notice you use the McClellan, both the oscillator and the summation index in your breadth charts.  Do you find them useful? 

Yep, I find they give some differences to the AD data. Although the McClellan oscillator is very similar in moves to the 10 day SMA Momentum Index. But the summation index is fairly unique.

[pcabc]

I thought I had replied to this but obviously lost it when correcting something else.  I notice you use the McClellan, both the oscillator and the summation index in your breadth charts.  Do you find them useful? 

Yep, I find they give some differences to the AD data. Although the McClellan oscillator is very similar in moves to the 10 day SMA Momentum Index. But the summation index is fairly unique.

It is interesting, as looking at bull or bear indication using the Summation Index I can get a fairly consistent match with stages 2 and 4 on the price index.  However, there are disagreements and I don't think they are necessarily signs of divergence in these cases, though it sometimes.   However, there are some periods of disagreement as it can indicate bear during a clear bull market and via-a-vis.  The simple answer is that you never rely on a single indicator but rather rely on the weight of evidence.

Its tempting to apply it to advancing / declining volume, but there is a danger that I am just making stuff up?  It might be no less  appropriate than comparing advancing / declining volume to various MAs?

[isatrader]

The Nasdaq 100 closed April at a new all time closing high, according to stockcharts figures. Another trader on twitters charts had it as slightly under. But either way it's an amazing stat considering what's happening in the world.

Here's all the closing line charts of the major indexes

               

[isatrader]

There's a lot of talk about sell in May on twitter today. But lots of people don't seem to understand the strategy and what it actually is. So for the full run down of it and how it is implemented see: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/Strategy.aspx