Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - Page 8

#57

RE: Beginners Questions

(2013-07-16, 09:03 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2013-07-16, 08:04 PM)anupam384 Wrote: isatrader,

I have a question for you. I am not sure where to post this and hope this is the right thread to post this question on.

Which broker and trading platform do you use to generate all the graphs that you upload every week.

I have my Roth account with Tradeking but I would like to open another trading account and cannot decide which broker has the best trading tools/platform.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Hi anupam384, and firstly welcome to the site.

This is a question that comes up a lot. I use an end of day program called ProTA Gold for the Mac to generate the weekly charts. But it's not suitable for most people normally as it needs a lot of manual input if you don't subscribe to the data provider as well. But it does make very good charts and is very easy to customise, which is why I use it for the weekly charts.

So for US stocks using Weinstein's method I usually recommend having a look at ProRealTime.com, Stockcharts.com, and Chartmill.com - all of which can all make very decent charts for free that are suitable for the method. Although I also subscribe to the extra package on Stockcharts.com, which is what I use to make the various market breadth charts.

Let me know if you have any other questions

Cheers


As always, thanks istrader for your quick reply.

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#58

RE: Beginners Questions

I got into TTHI back in May, about 2.97. Is this a stage 2A? Im just learning to recognize the stages.

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#59

RE: Beginners Questions

(2013-07-19, 05:29 PM)Sapphire Wrote: I got into TTHI back in May, about 2.97. Is this a stage 2A? Im just learning to recognize the stages.

It's quite a volatile one, but I'd say it's been in Stage 2 for a while, and briefly dropped out earlier in the year, and then made a strong move back into Stage 2 once again at the end of April on very strong volume.



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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#60

RE: Beginners Questions

(2013-07-19, 10:19 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2013-07-19, 05:29 PM)Sapphire Wrote: I got into TTHI back in May, about 2.97. Is this a stage 2A? Im just learning to recognize the stages.

It's quite a volatile one, but I'd say it's been in Stage 2 for a while, and briefly dropped out earlier in the year, and then made a strong move back into Stage 2 once again at the end of April on very strong volume.

I think im getting the stage ones confused with stage two. I thought the performance months back was a stage one. What is the best way to determine when a stock has been stagnant for a while.

BTW---Im going to sell this shortly...Bull market over.

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#61

RE: Beginners Questions

Can anyone tell me various stages that the following stocks have gone through in the last few years. Its difficult to see where stage 1 ended and stage 2 started

PCG, MDLZ, HWAY

Any help would be appreciated.

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#62

RE: Beginners Questions

(2013-07-23, 02:09 AM)anupam384 Wrote: Can anyone tell me various stages that the following stocks have gone through in the last few years. Its difficult to see where stage 1 ended and stage 2 started

PCG, MDLZ, HWAY

Any help would be appreciated.

PCG has been through the whole range of Stages over the last few years. It moved into a brief Stage 1 at the beginning of 2012 and then quickly into Stage 2 until it started to breakdown into Stage 3 in late summer 2012, and then dropped into a brief Stage 4 in November 2012 before recovering into Stage 1 once again in the early part of this year before breaking out into Stage 2 in March 2013.

   

MDLZ has been in Stage 2 since 2009 imo, with a number of significant consolidations along the way, when the 30 week MA was still strongly rising. November 2012 was the most significant when it was moving into a potential Stage 3, but it recovered quickly and made another continuation move higher.

   

HWAY has been in a strong Stage 2 since July 2012, moving over 100% since then. The Stage 1 formed during the spring in 2012 following a sharp Stage 4 in the second half of 2012.

   

I hope that helps

isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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#63
(This post was last modified: 2013-07-24, 03:34 PM by Red1324.)

RE: Beginners Questions

Regarding the commodities market, would this be the correct way to analyze the current situation?

On the PrefChart chart we see that Energy and Livestock commodity indices as the top performers. However, all three major commodity indices (CRB, CCI and GSCI) are below zero, which suggests that investing in commodities is not a good idea at the moment(?). If this does not rule out commodities then:

Should we look closer at the Energy commodity sector we see a Stage 1(?) breakout pattern unfolding. The negatives are that there is potential resistance at 390 after the initial breakout of 351 and that the SP500 relative strength is still negative but sloping up. relative strength to GSCI is positive as can be seen on the prefchart.

Looking at the commodities within the energy commodity sector we see that RBOB Gasoline making a potential head and shoulders pattern. However, if prices close above 3.36 it could be a continuation move(?) if all other indicators are in agreement.

Brent Crude Oil has a while to go but if the resistance at 117 is broken it is a buy (could wait for a close above 120 for confirmation) if all other indicators agree.

Crude Oil broke out of a triangle formation 2 weeks ago, which would have been a buy signal since the relative strength to SP500 and GSCI went positive and the volume was above the 52 week EMA, 30WMA was sloping up and cumulative volume gave a buy signal. It is currently making a pullback on the daily to its breakout level.

Heating Oil is rising towards its long-term trendline. If this trendline is broken with a decisive move, volume and positive RS, heating oil could be a potential buy.

Natural Gas has been in a very long downtrend. It has formed a trendline just recently (three touches). 30 WMA is flat and the SP500 and GSCI relative strengths are negative. If the RS turns positive on the break out 4.6 with volume, natural gas would move into stage 2. If the trendline is broken, then it is a Stage 4 continuation move(?). I would also like to add that the volume formation favors an upside move.

I have just read Stan Weinsteins book and am a little confused about analyzing commodities.



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#64

RE: Beginners Questions

(2013-07-24, 01:42 PM)Red1324 Wrote: Regarding the commodities market, would this be the correct way to analyze the current situation?

On the PrefChart chart we see that Energy and Livestock commodity indices as the top performers. However, all three major commodity indices (CRB, CCI and GSCI) are below zero, which suggests that investing in commodities is not a good idea at the moment(?). If this does not rule out commodities then:

Should we look closer at the Energy commodity sector we see a Stage 1(?) breakout pattern unfolding. The negatives are that there is potential resistance at 390 after the initial breakout of 351 and that the SP500 relative strength is still negative but sloping up. relative strength to GSCI is positive as can be seen on the prefchart.

Looking at the commodities within the energy commodity sector we see that RBOB Gasoline making a potential head and shoulders pattern. However, if prices close above 3.36 it could be a continuation move(?) if all other indicators are in agreement.

Brent Crude Oil has a while to go but if the resistance at 117 is broken it is a buy (could wait for a close above 120 for confirmation) if all other indicators agree.

Crude Oil broke out of a triangle formation 2 weeks ago, which would have been a buy signal since the relative strength to SP500 and GSCI went positive and the volume was above the 52 week EMA, 30WMA was sloping up and cumulative volume gave a buy signal. It is currently making a pullback on the daily to its breakout level.

Heating Oil is rising towards its long-term trendline. If this trendline is broken with a decisive move, volume and positive RS, heating oil could be a potential buy.

Natural Gas has been in a very long downtrend. It has formed a trendline just recently (three touches). 30 WMA is flat and the SP500 and GSCI relative strengths are negative. If the RS turns positive on the break out 4.6 with volume, natural gas would move into stage 2. If the trendline is broken, then it is a Stage 4 continuation move(?). I would also like to add that the volume formation favors an upside move.

I have just read Stan Weinsteins book and am a little confused about analyzing commodities.

The $CRB and $CCI are in Stage 4, but the GSCI Commodity Index ($GNX) is in Stage 1A currently imo.

The Energy Commodity Index ($GJX) is in Stage 2A, but below key resistance still, and the relative performance versus the S&P 500 is still well below the zero line. So you'd want to see confirmation of that with a breakout above the major resistance from the last year. Gasoline looks the same in early Stage 2A imo, but within a multi year sideways Stage 3/1 range. So plenty of resistance in the range to work through.

Natural Gas depends on what you look at, as if you look at the spot price ($NATGAS) it's been in Stage 2 since last September, but is close to breaking down now. But if you look at the ETF (UNG), then it's in Stage 4 again. Which shows the great disparity between the ETF and the spot price.

Anyway, it is possible to use Weinstein's method on commodities, but we have found on here that they have much quicker cycles through the Stages and it even mentions in the book about using a faster 40 day moving average with them (page 333) because of the speed with which they move. Plus there are other factors that influence them that don't effect stocks, so you need to be aware of this when you trade them.

isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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