(2020-08-14, 10:47 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: 1. part of my strategy is to better invest in my 401 retirement fund & roth ira. There, I am looking mainly to focus on an investment (using weinsteins terminology), not trading strategy. And entity wise, I'm leaning more towards etf's, mutual funds & large cap industry leaders to invest w/. But, I do want to focus on sectors w/in those investment vehicles. Since so many sectors have already left the stage 2 station weeks ago (like technology), would it be wiser for me to look at the sectors that are just now getting ready to initial break out into stage 2 (the laggard sectors in a sense like lets say utilties)? or would it be wiser to wait for a pullback in the leading sectors to healthy MA retest and then make a continuation play?
The focus in the method would be to remain with the leading stocks / sectors for the most part. There might be some exceptional stocks that are late movers (it's never utilities though), but for most part Weinstein, O'Neil etc all suggest that the leaders come out first from a significant decline in the market, and will generally continue to be strong until the end of Stage 2 advance. But they will have significant pullbacks and consolidations along the way. So, at this point in the Stage 2 advance you will have less Stage 2A breakouts, and much more continuation breakouts from higher consolidation bases. So you should be identifying the leading stocks and watching for proper bases to form that shake out the weak hands, and then be ready when they begin to make continuation breakouts.
(2020-08-14, 10:47 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: 2. I've researched this site a lot the last week and really like the info. I have a ques wh/ pertains back to ques 1. I looked at the market breadth section of the site & found it great. In particular wh/ really seemed to help w/ ques. 1, is your 2 sector tables of sectors above the 150 MA. That seems ideal esp for narrowing down to wh/ sector to allocate into w/ sector mutual funds or etf's. The last one I could find however that you did was the june 14th tables. Do you update more frequently on a weekly basis somewhere else? if not, is there somewhere that does this also?
(2020-08-14, 10:47 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: 3. I also have an individual account. In this account I want to be more aggressive and use a trader strategy focusing on individual stocks. And as you pointed out, I would like to find early leaders w/in sectors, before the sector even breaks out as a whole. What is my best source to go to to ferret out those stocks that are very close or just broke out into stage 2?
I use stockcharts custom screener for the majority of mine, and a lot of visual scanning to prune the results down. This is the purpose of my daily watchlist that post in the blog. As I look for all the stocks showing the characteristics that we look for and highlight them, whatever position that they are in at the time. As some may be months away from a buy point, but it the methods characteristics that I'm looking for, and so I can make a note of them, and start to monitor the stocks nearer to buy points more closely.
(2020-08-14, 10:47 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: 4. lastly, If im reading your daily update correctly, you seem bullish right now on the broader markets (sp 500 etc). Weinstein mentioned in the book the effect of an election year and how it is usually bullish. Even w/ covid, this seems to be falling into place. Do you feel technically from what you are seeing now, that at least until late Oct., that the overall markets can maintain bullishness?
I try not to be bullish or bearish, but instead just focus on the individual setups that I'm seeing and whether they are working or not. Currently, we've had two or three weeks of the leading stocks with failed continuation breakouts and getting hit on earnings quite hard. Whereas, some of the laggards have been doing well and breaking out. Hence why the S&P 500 moved into Stage 2. So breadth has been improving for the broader market, but the leaders continue to pullback. So I think we could be seeing some base building in those while some of the laggards rise up, but it should show which of the leaders are going to be the best, as they should ideally pullback the least on lighter volume, and show strong relative strength, and then make continuation moves once the market is ready.
But I think we are in a much tougher environment now in the short term, even though we are seeing signs of Stage 2 market. So, as always I recommend just to follow the price action and maintain proper risk management.
I hope that helps.
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2020-08-14, 12:05 AM)daddybyday Wrote: One final NOOBISH question for the night. How are you all tracking your trades? I was looking at some Google Sheets templates, and am just curious as to what you are using? Or do you recommend using that type of resource?
I use google sheets currently as it easy and updates the quotes with a 20 minute delay. So you can do all sorts of good stuff with it like get price, volume, high, low, 52 week high and low, EPS etc.
(2020-08-14, 10:47 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: 1. part of my strategy is to better invest in my 401 retirement fund & roth ira. There, I am looking mainly to focus on an investment (using weinsteins terminology), not trading strategy. And entity wise, I'm leaning more towards etf's, mutual funds & large cap industry leaders to invest w/. But, I do want to focus on sectors w/in those investment vehicles. Since so many sectors have already left the stage 2 station weeks ago (like technology), would it be wiser for me to look at the sectors that are just now getting ready to initial break out into stage 2 (the laggard sectors in a sense like lets say utilties)? or would it be wiser to wait for a pullback in the leading sectors to healthy MA retest and then make a continuation play?
The focus in the method would be to remain with the leading stocks / sectors for the most part. There might be some exceptional stocks that are late movers (it's never utilities though), but for most part Weinstein, O'Neil etc all suggest that the leaders come out first from a significant decline in the market, and will generally continue to be strong until the end of Stage 2 advance. But they will have significant pullbacks and consolidations along the way. So, at this point in the Stage 2 advance you will have less Stage 2A breakouts, and much more continuation breakouts from higher consolidation bases. So you should be identifying the leading stocks and watching for proper bases to form that shake out the weak hands, and then be ready when they begin to make continuation breakouts.
(2020-08-14, 10:47 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: 2. I've researched this site a lot the last week and really like the info. I have a ques wh/ pertains back to ques 1. I looked at the market breadth section of the site & found it great. In particular wh/ really seemed to help w/ ques. 1, is your 2 sector tables of sectors above the 150 MA. That seems ideal esp for narrowing down to wh/ sector to allocate into w/ sector mutual funds or etf's. The last one I could find however that you did was the june 14th tables. Do you update more frequently on a weekly basis somewhere else? if not, is there somewhere that does this also?
(2020-08-14, 10:47 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: 3. I also have an individual account. In this account I want to be more aggressive and use a trader strategy focusing on individual stocks. And as you pointed out, I would like to find early leaders w/in sectors, before the sector even breaks out as a whole. What is my best source to go to to ferret out those stocks that are very close or just broke out into stage 2?
I use stockcharts custom screener for the majority of mine, and a lot of visual scanning to prune the results down. This is the purpose of my daily watchlist that post in the blog. As I look for all the stocks showing the characteristics that we look for and highlight them, whatever position that they are in at the time. As some may be months away from a buy point, but it the methods characteristics that I'm looking for, and so I can make a note of them, and start to monitor the stocks nearer to buy points more closely.
(2020-08-14, 10:47 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: 4. lastly, If im reading your daily update correctly, you seem bullish right now on the broader markets (sp 500 etc). Weinstein mentioned in the book the effect of an election year and how it is usually bullish. Even w/ covid, this seems to be falling into place. Do you feel technically from what you are seeing now, that at least until late Oct., that the overall markets can maintain bullishness?
I try not to be bullish or bearish, but instead just focus on the individual setups that I'm seeing and whether they are working or not. Currently, we've had two or three weeks of the leading stocks with failed continuation breakouts and getting hit on earnings quite hard. Whereas, some of the laggards have been doing well and breaking out. Hence why the S&P 500 moved into Stage 2. So breadth has been improving for the broader market, but the leaders continue to pullback. So I think we could be seeing some base building in those while some of the laggards rise up, but it should show which of the leaders are going to be the best, as they should ideally pullback the least on lighter volume, and show strong relative strength, and then make continuation moves once the market is ready.
But I think we are in a much tougher environment now in the short term, even though we are seeing signs of Stage 2 market. So, as always I recommend just to follow the price action and maintain proper risk management.
I hope that helps.
Great discussion--I'm in danger of learning something here! Thank you both!
I just came across this stock from isa's yesterday breakout list.
1- Just broke out on good (monthly) volume
2- Increasing monthly volume
3- Last significant resistance was back in 2014
I take this chance to ask you guys a question. When looking at the chart of a stock, do you look at the chart over 1 year? 2 years? 3 years? 5 years?
I know Stan says to look at the Mansfield chart, which displays the price over about 2.5 years but I can't find it online. For now I'm using Tradingview.
(2020-08-15, 05:03 PM)moneymaker Wrote: I take this chance to ask you guys a question. When looking at the chart of a stock, do you look at the chart over 1 year? 2 years? 3 years? 5 years?
I know Stan says to look at the Mansfield chart, which displays the price over about 2.5 years but I can't find it online. For now I'm using Tradingview.
The Mansfield service doesn't exist anymore.
Personally my preferred chart length for weekly is set at 2 years 9 months, as gives a good balance of relevant resistance and view of the Stages that the stock has been through. I find longer than that is unnecessary on a weekly chart, and switch instead to the monthly chart for the longer term view.
9 months is what I use on the Daily chart
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
(2020-08-15, 06:54 PM)moneymaker Wrote: Ok thanks isa. What about the KMDA stock? Does it look good to you or not really?
I can't give advice on individual stocks, as not licensed to do so. But I have marked up the weekly chart for you to show you where it is in terms of the method to help you learn what we look for.
It made its first Stage 2A breakout attempt back in November, but it would have been stopped out with the investor method stop loss in the March crash. But it then recovered and broke out again into early Stage 2A in May on strong relative volume compared to its normal volume. It's since consolidated in a volatile range, making a base on base type pattern and tried to make a continuation breakout attempt last week following earnings on heavy volume, but it failed to hold the breakout and closed back down near the top of the range. So some of the characteristics that the method looks for, but a very volatile stock. Hence, risk would be higher, and so it would get a lower rating than other stocks with the same characteristics, but cleaner price action and more liquidity.
I hope that helps
isatrader
Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
