Stage Analysis Video Training Course

Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - Page 127

RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions- CTC.TO

(2020-05-10, 01:36 PM)marry123 Wrote: What is frustrating is that many of the tech stocks, like SHOP, had no proper bases form after they collapsed into March (and they fell below their 30 MA on the weekly) but then just ripped higher, many of them up 100% from end of March. They were just V rallies so if one was following the stage analysis method I guess one would have missed out on all these tech stocks if forming a proper base before buying a breakout is a key prerequisite for entry long? When would one have known to go long SHOP after it crashed in March and why would one have bought it if stocks should form proper bases, as you noted, of a year or more?

Thanks for your thoughts.

SHOP was already in Stage 2, and gave many opportunities over the last year to get in. See attached chart for a few. And so because the fall below the 30 week MA immediately reversed in March and didn't breach the investor stop loss position, SHOP remained in Stage 2. Although, it would have been give a preliminary Stage 3A rating, that it might be entering Stage 3. But as often happens, that was discarded when it powered back to make a new Stage 2 continuation breakout. The first sign of which would have been the double bottom pattern breakout on 14th April, as it was proving that it still had strength. So that was you entry point recently. But as an investor it was over year ago.

As I added SHOP to the watchlist about a month after its Stage 2 breakout last year here https://www.stageanalysis.net/forum/Thre...5#pid13545 So there was good opportunities to buy following that, especially the continuation breakout from the flat base pattern in April 2019 which I've highlighted on the attached chart.

I also highlighted numerous other times later in the year after the first significant pullback was completing here on 26th Nov: https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/8836/...ember-2019 and then again on Dec 4th https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/9438/...ember-2019

So as you can see, there were many chances with good risk reward to get in. But when markets get volatile like they have recently, then it becomes more of a traders market, and so investors would hold onto their strongest stocks like SHOP, and sell off their weakest. Whereas Traders would be looking for opportunities both long and short, as Stage 4 in the market brings huge volatility. Which is brilliant for short term trading.



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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions- CTC.TO

(2020-05-10, 03:08 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2020-05-10, 01:36 PM)marry123 Wrote: What is frustrating is that many of the tech stocks, like SHOP, had no proper bases form after they collapsed into March (and they fell below their 30 MA on the weekly) but then just ripped higher, many of them up 100% from end of March. They were just V rallies so if one was following the stage analysis method I guess one would have missed out on all these tech stocks if forming a proper base before buying a breakout is a key prerequisite for entry long? When would one have known to go long SHOP after it crashed in March and why would one have bought it if stocks should form proper bases, as you noted, of a year or more?

Thanks for your thoughts.

SHOP was already in Stage 2, and gave many opportunities over the last year to get in. See attached chart for a few. And so because the fall below the 30 week MA immediately reversed in March and didn't breach the investor stop loss position, SHOP remained in Stage 2. Although, it would have been give a preliminary Stage 3A rating, that it might be entering Stage 3. But as often happens, that was discarded when it powered back to make a new Stage 2 continuation breakout. The first sign of which would have been the double bottom pattern breakout on 14th April, as it was proving that it still had strength. So that was you entry point recently. But as an investor it was over year ago.

As I added SHOP to the watchlist about a month after its Stage 2 breakout last year here https://www.stageanalysis.net/forum/Thre...5#pid13545 So there was good opportunities to buy following that, especially the continuation breakout from the flat base pattern in April 2019 which I've highlighted on the attached chart.

I also highlighted numerous other times later in the year after the first significant pullback was completing here on 26th Nov: https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/8836/...ember-2019 and then again on Dec 4th https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/9438/...ember-2019

So as you can see, there were many chances with good risk reward to get in. But when markets get volatile like they have recently, then it becomes more of a traders market, and so investors would hold onto their strongest stocks like SHOP, and sell off their weakest. Whereas Traders would be looking for opportunities both long and short, as Stage 4 in the market brings huge volatility. Which is brilliant for short term trading
Thanks for the thorough explanation. I am going to print out this chart as it shows so nicely the breakouts from proper bases and then re-entry opportunities, as you point out. I had the opportunity to buy this stock at $50 because I am in Ottawa and my friend knows the founder and CEO and I recall the day he recommended I buy it about 4 yrs ago, roughly, and I said "I know nothing about tech stocks so will just pass." I don't want to depress myself by thinking about not buying it back then or not having followed closely enough your posts a year+ back.

RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions- CTC.TO

(2020-05-10, 03:08 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2020-05-10, 01:36 PM)marry123 Wrote: What is frustrating is that many of the tech stocks, like SHOP, had no proper bases form after they collapsed into March (and they fell below their 30 MA on the weekly) but then just ripped higher, many of them up 100% from end of March. They were just V rallies so if one was following the stage analysis method I guess one would have missed out on all these tech stocks if forming a proper base before buying a breakout is a key prerequisite for entry long? When would one have known to go long SHOP after it crashed in March and why would one have bought it if stocks should form proper bases, as you noted, of a year or more?

Thanks for your thoughts.

SHOP was already in Stage 2, and gave many opportunities over the last year to get in. See attached chart for a few. And so because the fall below the 30 week MA immediately reversed in March and didn't breach the investor stop loss position, SHOP remained in Stage 2. Although, it would have been give a preliminary Stage 3A rating, that it might be entering Stage 3. But as often happens, that was discarded when it powered back to make a new Stage 2 continuation breakout. The first sign of which would have been the double bottom pattern breakout on 14th April, as it was proving that it still had strength. So that was you entry point recently. But as an investor it was over year ago.

As I added SHOP to the watchlist about a month after its Stage 2 breakout last year here https://www.stageanalysis.net/forum/Thre...5#pid13545 So there was good opportunities to buy following that, especially the continuation breakout from the flat base pattern in April 2019 which I've highlighted on the attached chart.

I also highlighted numerous other times later in the year after the first significant pullback was completing here on 26th Nov: https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/8836/...ember-2019 and then again on Dec 4th https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/9438/...ember-2019

So as you can see, there were many chances with good risk reward to get in. But when markets get volatile like they have recently, then it becomes more of a traders market, and so investors would hold onto their strongest stocks like SHOP, and sell off their weakest. Whereas Traders would be looking for opportunities both long and short, as Stage 4 in the market brings huge volatility. Which is brilliant for short term trading.

 I will watch like a hawk now your weekly list for any Canadian stocks trading on the US exchange that may end up there. I know as of now you have focussed on miners (many of them are Canadian listed on TSX and US), which I am tracking.

(This post was last modified: 2020-05-10, 03:44 PM by marry123.)

RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions-STN.TO

STN.TO (attached) has broken out of a 6 year base recently so looks like it would be a buy above 42.39 (recent high). Anything wrong that you can find with this stock in terms of a proper entry above recent highs?  Also attached a 2 hr chart. Thank you.

[b]Stantec Inc.[/b] is an international professional services company in the design and consulting industry. Founded in 1954, as [i]D. R. Stanley Associates[/i] in Edmonton, Alberta. Stantec provides professional consulting services in planning, engineering, architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, surveying, environmental sciences, project management, and project economics for infrastructure and facilities projects. The Company provides services on projects around the world through over 22,000 employees operating out of more than 410 locations in North America and across offices in 6 continents internationally.[1



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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions

(2020-05-10, 12:42 PM)Joe725 Wrote: I have a question, i've just see the weekly breakout watchlist that contains BYND. I am already long on BYND with a small amount invested when it was at $90. Is now the time to buy more on Monday? I'm looking at the chart the volume is really good, it's very close to breaking the short term overhead resistance?

Or is my buy-in solely dependant on if it can break above the $135.

Technically it would be a breakout into Stage 2, which is why I've highlighted it in the watchlist, as there may be further opportunities to get in, and that is the official initial investor buy point. But with the broad market in Stage 4, investor entries should only be considered if they meet the A+ requirements. Which 95% or more of breakouts don't. 

So, I added it to the watchlist to keep an eye on, as I'd only personally consider getting in once there had been a period of consolidation (a month or more) or a pullback. As pullbacks will often retrace 50% of the recent advance, so you should never chase imo.  

Also in the short term it is extended after a huge move off the lows in a very short period, and it had a trader entry point on the 6th May with a breakout above the pivot cup and handle pivot level of 116.64. So that was the time to add if trading imo, as you need to consider the risk reward first always.

What would be good to see here, would be some further consolidation below the breakout level, or just above it for a number of weeks. As this would then give a better entry setup and the moving averages a chance to catch up a bit.

   

isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions

Hi,

I am currently reading Stans book and am at chapter 4, the problem I now face is where to find the weekly industrial charts? To identify the most bullish industrys within each sector, any help greatly appreciated!

RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions

(2020-05-11, 11:04 AM)Stockytrader Wrote: Hi,

I am currently reading Stans book and am at chapter 4, the problem I now face is where to find the weekly industrial charts? To identify the most bullish industrys within each sector, any help greatly appreciated!

Stockcharts has the 100+ Dow Jones US Industry Groups here: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/indus...l#&t=T&O=1

isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions

(2020-05-11, 11:10 AM)isatrader Wrote:
(2020-05-11, 11:04 AM)Stockytrader Wrote: Hi,

I am currently reading Stans book and am at chapter 4, the problem I now face is where to find the weekly industrial charts? To identify the most bullish industrys within each sector, any help greatly appreciated!

Stockcharts has the 100+ Dow Jones US Industry Groups here: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/indus...l#&t=T&O=1

Thanks isa, that was exactly what I was after!



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