Hey RU, I think the interview where ISA asked Stan some questions will really help with that question. You can find the whole thing @ http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthrea...d=1&page=9 on post number 67.
I took his answer as a strong need to familiarize yourself with the charts as much as possible and you will see when a run up is getting late in a stage by seeing the patterns of other stocks. However, you will see stocks break the trend and stick with a stage for a lot longer than average on occasion (like no pullback on the SP500 since Nov?!)..which is why he says it is a "gut feel" i guess. Anyway, check out his answer-
Quote:Q. In the GTA reports you have short descriptions of all the sub-stages, which weren't in the book. Is there anywhere we can get detailed information on the sub-stages from?
Also, the Stage 1 - Basing Phase. May begin accumulation has raised a few questions also. Like do you recommend someone using the investor method do any buying in Stage 1, and if so how to go about it? And the same question for people using the trader method, as I noticed in one of the interviews you mentioned that you recommended some trader buying even as early as Stage 4B- in some instances?
A. I really don't have detailed information on the sub stages that you ask about. It's somewhat of a gut feel (obviously when a stock is first breaking out of a base and moving into Stage 2, I label it Stage 2A (early in the advancing phase). And after it's been in that stage and becomes extended, I label it Stage 2B (late in the advancing phase). And if I just put a Stage 2 rating on the stock, theoretically, I feel that it's not yet ridiculously extended and is in the middle of its move (but again there are no hard and fast rules).
Quote:So using this example, I'd say your GREK etf hasn't given a buy-if candle yet, as it's still making lower closes, and first needs to make at least a higher close than the previous day.
I hope that makes sense, and is one fairly simple method. But I think it might be worth doing some swing trading entry research, as this is one of those grey areas that the book doesn't give any guidance on.
As for the pullback entry points, Stan only said
Quote:A. I suggest doing secondary buying when a stock pulls back close to the breakout point, and you then see it stabilize near that level.
which I took it as trading sideways. The GREK is probably a bad example. But when I see a stock stop right on that breakout point (mid-day) and the next few days stop there as well (even if they might be closing lower), I see it as a pretty strong signal that the stock has hit its swing low. But in general I think you are completely right when saying as a general rule it is good to see a higher close than the previous day. Thanks for the answer.
I notice on Stan's pullback entry suggestions that he just says "on a pullback to around blah blah" which is a little vague because he can't be watching every stock for everyone..but, I'm honestly not so sure he would even think about it very much for his own trading. I have the impression he just wants to see it stop around there (the breakout) for a day or two and then get in with a tight stop. If he's right he's right..if he's wrong, he's wrong. Seems like he doesn't really care too much about the outcome of one single entry point because he knows on a better-than-average basis it will bounce there whether he watches it or not. That is the perception I have of him after seeing his answers to you and listening to him on financial sense.