[kero]

Ok. So its all about calibrating the approach basing on own perception of risk. Considering that I'm working about risk reduction, I'll go in the same direction.

As a note. Recently, considering that it is sometime hard to decide wether the market is perfectly bull, perfectly bear, perfectly flat, or in stage 1/2/3/4, I started to develop a method in which I prefer to define a sort of notation to evaluate the trend. This notation is intended to integrate indices' observations but also indicators (AD line, momentum...). At the moment, watching at the world/European indices, my ratio is 2/10 bull (and hence 8/10 bear).

The idea is to start open positions in a direction (long/short) when the notation in this direction is over 5. Also, to calibrate the exposition of the portfolio depending on this notation. This should reduce risk when trend perspective isn't perfectly clear. If, for example, the bull trend is at 6/10, I can invest 20% of the PF in long positions. If it is at 7/10, I can invest until 40%, and so on.

Basing on this I think that - when the bull trend weakens, I will force the closing of positions, at least when there is a big divergence between my portfolio exposition and the market state.

By the way, what do you think about that way of calibrating the exposition of the portfolio ?