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+--- Thread: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis (/Thread-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-and-Market-Breadth-Technical-Analysis)
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RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Discussion Thread - goodtyneguy - 2013-06-14
I thought this webinar held by Interactive Brokers on trading break outs would be of interest here, I have not seen it myself yet so apologies if it's not up to scratch.
Quote:No system of technical analysis is complete without an understanding of breakouts. In this continuation of his webinar series, Waverly Advisors CIO and acclaimed author Adam Grimes takes a look at breakout trades on all timeframes. Breakout trades occur every day in nearly every market, but many of them fail. Learn tools and techniques that can help traders separate the best breakout setups from the rest. In addition, this webinar will look at the patterns around failed breakouts, and some ideas for incorporating these patterns into your trading plan. Though many authors focus on these potentially exciting trades, you need to understand the hidden risks and dangers and understand how to incorporate them into your trading plan.
US Industry Sectors Breadth - isatrader - 2013-06-15
With the NYSE percentage of stocks above their 150 day moving averages chart breaking down earlier in the week it's not a surprise to see a very negative week in the individual sectors with Technology being the only sector that's managed to hang on to it's buy signal. Three more sectors broke down below their 10 week moving averages this week - Health Care, Consumer Discretionary and Energy. Whereas Financials - which is the sector with the largest amount of stocks in the US (1100 stocks currently) - broke below it's April swing low to close the week under the key 70% level for the first time this year.
So overall the sectors seem to be weakening and rolling over currently - which can be seen in the sector breadth visual diagram clearly if you compare it back over the last few weeks. As only three weeks ago the majority of sectors were on a buy signal in the overbought zone, whereas today eight of the nine sectors are on a sell signal in the upper middle part of the range.
Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages line chart.
RE: Market Breadth Update - isatrader - 2013-06-15
Attached is the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index which shows the current state of the market. The long and medium term charts are on Bear Confirmed status, whereas the short term charts reversed back to Xs in the middle of the range on Thursday, and so are on Bear Correction status currently.
Volatility Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-06-15
Attached is the updated volatility breadth charts
Advance Decline Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2013-06-15
Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator and the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.
Notes:
- Cumulative Advance Decline Line - closed the week below it's 50 day MA
- Advance Decline Momentum Index - near the April swing low
- Cumulative Advance Decline Line 10 and 30 day moving averages - had a negative crossover this week to give a medium term sell signal
- Cumulative Advance Decline Line - the detrended distance above the 200 day EMA chart shows the November to May uptrend is over and it is now in a short term downtrend
- Advance Decline 10 Day Oscillator - rebounded off of it's extreme reading of over -800 last week and formed a short term higher low
- Advance Decline MACD line - continues to move lower below it's zero line and so is currently on a sell signal
- McClellan Oscillator - is making similar moves to the Advance Decline 10 Day Oscillator
- McClellan Summation Index - has continued to move lower towards it's zero line.
New Highs New Lows $NYHL - isatrader - 2013-06-15
Attached is the New Highs / New Lows charts.
S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns - isatrader - 2013-06-15
The S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns chart is now below it's 20 day moving average and so is in negative territory, although the moving average has been rising quite strongly, so I'd give it a neutral rating currently.
Major Stock Indexes Update - isatrader - 2013-06-15
Attached is the updated major equity index charts and relative performance table. Note the Vix has taken the top spot as it closed the week above it's zero line for the first time this year and is now in Stage 1B, and a weekly close above 18.20 which was the April swing high would move it into Stage 2A imo, which would be a negative for the stock market.
On the S&P 500 the Momentum Index has broken below it's April swing low, and the 30 week weighted moving average momentum has now had two down weeks and price is consolidating near the 50 day MA, and so along with the other breadth indicators which I post in the Market Breadth thread here: http://stageanalysis.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=4&pid=929#pid929 there are signs that the current Stage 2B that the S&P 500 is in could well be becoming early Stage 3.
US Stock Indexes
European Stock Indexes