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+--- Thread: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis and Market Breadth - Technical Analysis (/Thread-Stan-Weinstein-s-Stage-Analysis-and-Market-Breadth-Technical-Analysis)
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S&P 1500 MACD Breadth Charts - isatrader - 2015-03-15
Attached is the updated MACD breadth measures, which are:
The short term measure is the % stocks on a Daily MACD on Buy Signal in S&P 1500 - which means the % of stocks with a MACD Histogram greater than zero.
The medium term measure is the % stocks with a Daily MACD Line above the Zero Line in the S&P 1500.
The long term measure is the % stocks with a Weekly MACD Line above the Zero Line in the S&P 1500.
Note: the short term measure dropped to it's previous lowest levels midweek, but recovered into the end of the week. So am watching for a reversal back above the key 30% level for a new positive short term signal.
Mark Minervini Free Webinar - isatrader - 2015-03-15
FREE WEBINAR on 25th March with Mark Minervini and 3-time U.S. Investing Champion David Ryan - LIMITED SEATS
Here's the ink to sign up: http://mpa.omnovia.com/register/46211425917702
US Industry Sectors Breadth - isatrader - 2015-03-15
Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages line chart.
Dow Jones US Sub Sectors Performance - US Stocks - isatrader - 2015-03-15
Attached is the US Sub Sectors ordered by the weekly and monthly percentage change.
To see the full list sectioned by major sector, with links through to individual stocks in each sector, go to: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/industrysummary.html?&V=W&G=SECTOR_SPDR
Weekly US Sector Relative Performance
Monthly US Sector Relative Performance
RE: Market Breadth Extra - Amedee - 2015-03-18
(2015-03-15, 10:06 PM)isatrader Wrote: Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages line chart.
Hi Isatrader,
I am trying to get a grip on your table of stocks/sectors above the 150 day moving average and the visual diagram of 9 sectors.
According to your oversold to overbought diagram, it looks like financials and Health care are both overbought and the strongest sectors.
While scrolling through the information on the site of Tom Dorsey (DWA), I have a different reading...
DWA distinguishes 40 sectors (!). The strongest sectors are
1 Biomedics favored
2 Aerospace average
3 Drugs favored
4 Healthcare favored
5 Restaurants favored
6 Leisure favored
7 Semiconductors favored
8 Housing favored
9 Textile favored
10 Insurance average
...
Financials are ranking #13 and are unfavored (in this case, for example the percent of stocks in positive trend is bear confirmed and the RS trend of the sector is not giving enough positive signals). In the data table 'stocks above 150 day moving average' financials are #1 and going up ?!
On the sector bell curve (the 40 broad sector groups are mapped according to their current bullish percent reading, that is the percent of stocks on a P&F buy signal), financials are in the middle of the curve @48-52% and not really shifting to left or right at the moment. In the visual diagram, financials are in the 70-802% zone and green?
Healthcare is not equal neither.
This sector is outperforming. On the DWA bell curve, healthcare is @58-62% and shifting to the right side of the bell curve (4 months ago it was @ 48-52%). With a reading of 58-62%, the sector is not overbought yet..
Like you said, the healthcare is a strong sector, but although perhaps on a downtrend above the 150 day moving average, not on a downtrend when measuring its RS/performance (the sector RS is still very strong, the % of stocks on positive trend for the sector is outstanding...) and not overbought yet.
In other words, I find it difficult to interpret the table of stocks above 150 day moving average, the line charts and the visual diagram of 9 sectors. Is the 150 day moving average such a important market breadth indicator? I understand that 72-73 % of the stocks in the sectors financials and health care are above the 150 day moving average. But is it correct then to point out that those sectors are overbought?
Do you see a reason why the difference between both 'models' could be quite different?
RE: Market Breadth Extra - isatrader - 2015-03-18
(2015-03-18, 11:33 PM)Amedee Wrote: According to your oversold to overbought diagram, it looks like financials and Health care are both overbought and the strongest sectors.
While scrolling through the information on the site of Tom Dorsey (DWA), I have a different reading...
DWA distinguishes 40 sectors (!). The strongest sectors are
1 Biomedics favored
2 Aerospace average
3 Drugs favored
4 Healthcare favored
5 Restaurants favored
6 Leisure favored
7 Semiconductors favored
8 Housing favored
9 Textile favored
10 Insurance average
...
Financials are ranking #13 and are unfavored (in this case, for example the percent of stocks in positive trend is bear confirmed and the RS trend of the sector is not giving enough positive signals). In the data table 'stocks above 150 day moving average' financials are #1 and going up ?!
On the sector bell curve (the 40 broad sector groups are mapped according to their current bullish percent reading, that is the percent of stocks on a P&F buy signal), financials are in the middle of the curve @48-52% and not really shifting to left or right at the moment. In the visual diagram, financials are in the 70-802% zone and green?
Firstly, you're comparing the major industry groups in my sector breadth with the individual subsectors in Dorsey's bell curve. So you will see differences, as the Financials sector in my sector breadth is made up of 1160 stocks currently out of of a total 4829 stocks. Which is 24% of the whole market, so it's by far the largest industry sector and is obviously made up of many subsectors. Health Care currently has 578 stocks, which is 12% of the market and of it's subsectors will be Biotech stocks that are leading in the Dorsey bell curve. So what i mean is, is that you are comparing industry sectors with subsectors.
No sectors are currently overbought on the visual diagram. So I'm not sure why you are seeing that, as the visual diagram says what they are on the right hand side. So for example Financials and Health Care are both in the Bullish range in the visual diagram. And health Care has been been in a strong uptrend since October.
Here's the current standing on the visual diagram:
4 sectors are in the Bullish zone
2 sectors are in the Neutral Positive zone
1 sector is in the Neutral Negative zone
1 sector is in the Bearish zone and finally
1 sector is basing in the Oversold zone
So we have 6 out of 9 in the positive zones currently, and a total of 53.51% of 4829 stocks in the US market above their 150 day moving averages. So an overall market reading in the Neutral Positive zone. Which matches up with the NYSE and Nasdaq Percentage of stocks above their 150 day MA readings which I also include on the visual diagram for comparison.
As for the colours on the chart, they simply show the weekly direction, as highlighted on the table as well, and are not specifying trend.
RE: Market Breadth Extra - isatrader - 2015-03-19
(2015-03-18, 11:33 PM)Amedee Wrote: In other words, I find it difficult to interpret the table of stocks above 150 day moving average, the line charts and the visual diagram of 9 sectors. Is the 150 day moving average such a important market breadth indicator? I understand that 72-73 % of the stocks in the sectors financials and health care are above the 150 day moving average. But is it correct then to point out that those sectors are overbought?
Do you see a reason why the difference between both 'models' could be quite different?
The 150 day moving average is the daily equivalent of the 30 week MA that is crucial in Weinstein's method for determining the four stages.
The most important breadth chart in Weinstein's method is the NYSE and S&P Surveys which measure the amount of stocks in Stages 1 & 2 in the market, but this is a proprietary breadth chart that is only available to subscribers to Weinstein's GTA service. But if you read the Technically Speaking interview that I gave the link for the other day, then you'll understand that the percentage of stocks above the 30 week MA is the closest approximation to that proprietary breadth chart, as Weinstein has said it has a 75% to 80% correlation with his proprietary Stages Surveys, and hence why I include it in the market breadth each week. The custom sectors version that I create breaks down the NYSE and Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day (30 week) charts that you see on here and Dorsey's site into the 9 major sectors and also combines the two to give a total US market view on one chart.
RE: Market Breadth Extra - isatrader - 2015-03-19
One more thing is that the Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day MA's is a chart to determine the health of the market, whereas to see the relative performance versus the market of the major sectors, then you need to view the Mansfield RS table that I post in the Stan Weinstein thread, as that uses the Mansfield readings that we use to determine relative performance in Weinstein's method with the Mansfield zero line.
It only covers the stocks in the sectors ETFs - so mostly S&P 500 stocks, and so has a smaller sample size, but is very useful. See the attached latest Mansfield RS relative performance table of the 9 sectors in order of relative strength. And as you can see Health Care is leading, followed by Consumer Discretionary and then Technology.
So you need to use both sets of data, as they give you different types of information. For example the Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day MA's tells you about how many stocks in the sector are participating, and so how healthy the sector is, and the Mansfield relative strength readings in the above table tell you about the relative strength of the sector. So you can see that the Consumer Discretionary sector for example has healthy participation of 64.68% and strong relative performance versus the S&P 500, as the Mansfield RS reading is at 5.338. Whereas Financials has the best participation of 73.88%, but it's relative performance only has a Mansfield reading of 0.314, and hence is only just slightly above it's zero line and thus performing inline with the S&P 500 in the medium term.