Stage Analysis Forum - Trading & Investing using Stan Weinstein's Stocks Breakout method
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Tom Roberge - tomroberge@icloud.com - 2015-08-01

Hi David and other members,

I am Tom Roberge and am a retired chartered (certified public) accountant living in Florida.

I have been investing since the early 2000s using the Investors Business Daily method and have lectured at several of their monthly meet-ups for many years.

With the impending market bubble on the horizon, I have just finished re-reading Stan Weinstein's 1988 classic. The Investors Business Daily is excellent but is geared to growth investing. Weinstein's method is more comprehensive since it responsive to the speed - bumps we encounter in life.

I look forward to becoming active in your group.

Tom Roberge
Florida


RE: Introduce yourself here! - pcabc - 2015-08-02

(2015-08-01, 11:15 AM)tomroberge@icloud.com Wrote: Hi David and other members,

I am Tom Roberge and am a retired chartered (certified public) accountant living in Florida.

I have been investing since the early 2000s using the Investors Business Daily method and have lectured at several of their monthly meet-ups for many years.

With the impending market bubble on the horizon, I have just finished re-reading Stan Weinstein's 1988 classic. The Investors Business Daily is excellent but is geared to growth investing. Weinstein's method is more comprehensive since it responsive to the speed - bumps we encounter in life.

I look forward to becoming active in your group.

Tom Roberge
Florida

Nice to meet you. It will be interesting to see how the methods compare. Also seeing if we can safely negotiate the next speed bump.


RE: Introduce yourself here! - canoekoh - 2016-01-10

Hello everyone,

I was actually introduced to Stan's stage analysis after reading the books by Jesse Stine and Mark Minervini. I'm currently in the stage of trying to sculpt my own trading style. Hope to have some interesting discussions here.


RE: Introduce yourself here! - 360lik - 2016-01-10

Is this a paid service? How do you find Mansfield charts on stocks and the DJI? I think Stan is right and I just found his book. I have made about every mistake in the book at least once. Thanks


RE: Introduce yourself here! - isatrader - 2016-01-10

(2016-01-10, 07:09 PM)360lik Wrote: Is this a paid service? How do you find Mansfield charts on stocks and the DJI? I think Stan is right and I just found his book. I have made about every mistake in the book at least once. Thanks

Hi 360lik, and welcome to the site.

It just a board for people that are trying to trade using Stan's methods, and there aren't any paid options anymore.

Mansfield charts are easy to create as it's just the 52 week MA of the stocks relative performance versus the S&P 500. There's thread in the General Board that explains it here: How to create the Mansfield Relative Performance Indicator

There are thousands of posts on here that will help you learn the method and go more in depth with it. A good place to start is the Beginners Questions thread.

I hope that helps.


RE: Introduce yourself here! - Acon - 2016-01-14

Hello isatrader and everyone else! My name is Acon Cheng. I will be 40 years old this year. I'm from Taiwan and will move to Australia soon (just got Australian PR last year). I had run a 3D design/3D printing/3D scanning business for over 8 years here but have sold everything in my career and got some money recently. Hopefully I will use the money to start a new life in Australia and profit in the stock market in the future.

In the past two years, I've spent lots of money in expensive investment courses and tried to use my saving to invest/trade in Taiwanese stock market. Unfortunately without any good discipline and with every mistake mentioned in Mr. Weinstein's book made, I lost quite some money in these two years. The loss wasn't lethal but has definitely taught me a lesson.

One of the main reason of my failure I believe is that I underestimated the complexity of stock market and had thought I can run my full-time business and do some professional trading tricks at the same time without too much effort on studying and research. I was totally wrong.

Now that I've ended my 3D profession and have much more time so I started to re-study stock market knowledge in these 2 months. An old friend recommended Mr. Weinstein's book. I was so amazed (stunned actually) after reading the Chinese version of this master piece and decided to follow his method right away. So I bought the original English book and I'm reading both versions for the second time. With the original version I found some mistakes of translation in the Chinese book. Read two books at the same time is time and energy consuming, but I start to understand the whole picture gradually, which is intellectually fun and joyful. After leaving the school for such a long time (my major is nutritional biochemistry) I am so happy for having a chance to study like a college student again.

I stumbled across this website when searching for methods to write the Mansfield RS zero line (now I know it's the 52-week MA of itself). I've gone through all posts of this Introduce Yourself Here! thread and got some basic ideas about updating the whole trading system in Mr. Weinstein's book with modern indicators and tools. Now I am ready to read the "Beginner's Questions" and "Market Breadth Update" threads. As for the original thread in T2W created by istrader and the new "Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis" thread on this forum, they are too many posts there so maybe I need much more time to digest them after my second tour of the book.

I want to thank isatrader for creating such a amazing site. With your and other senior members' passion I believe I can dive deeply into Mr. Weinstein's method and find my way there. Hopefully I can contribute my own knowledge to this site in the future.

Guess I am the only (at least the first) Asian to speak here, haha. Here are some of my questions. Hope they are not too stupid and someone can give me some advises:

(1) Mr. Weinstein talked about his method basically on American market, but I saw some members coming from different corners of the world use Mr. Weinstein’s method to trade in their own market, which makes me wonder if his method a universal principle and can fit to all the markets on earth? In my case, Taiwanese market is a small and shallow one and easily manipulated so I don’t think stage analysis is a good strategy here.

(2) Which stockbroker do you recommend if I want to use the method on American market? Since different stockbrokers have different way to charge the commission fee, and stage analysis don’t need you to buy and sell at a very high frequency, I guess there must be a better choice to reduce your cost of trading. (Of course the stability, data availability, trading software and the variety of trading targets are concerns too)

(3) I noticed that members here tend to use some screening sites like StockCharts.com, Chartmill.com and independent softwares like ProRealTime or ShareScope to collect data, create indicators/charts and screen your targets. But why don’t you just use the software that stockbrokers provided –like Trader WorkStation 4 from Interactive Broker - to do so?

(4) As for the sites, a website mentioned by its creator here in this thread:
http://www.nextbigtrade.com
I found it can list highly organized screener results for stage analyst in its screener page with stage of the index, % of stocks on each stage in different sectors. Looks handy and promising. Anybody have experience on this website?

(5) Finally, I noticed that there is no need to subscribe the elite membership anymore to see all the sections on this website. Why? I can pay for the membership if the price is reasonable.


RE: Introduce yourself here! - isatrader - 2016-01-14

(2016-01-14, 06:04 AM)Acon Wrote: Hello isatrader and everyone else! My name is Acon Cheng. I will be 40 years old this year. I'm from Taiwan and will move to Australia soon (just got Australian PR last year). I had run a 3D design/3D printing/3D scanning business for over 8 years here but have sold everything in my career and got some money recently. Hopefully I will use the money to start a new life in Australia and profit in the stock market in the future.

In the past two years, I've spent lots of money in expensive investment courses and tried to use my saving to invest/trade in Taiwanese stock market. Unfortunately without any good discipline and with every mistake mentioned in Mr. Weinstein's book made, I lost quite some money in these two years. The loss wasn't lethal but has definitely taught me a lesson.

One of the main reason of my failure I believe is that I underestimated the complexity of stock market and had thought I can run my full-time business and do some professional trading tricks at the same time without too much effort on studying and research. I was totally wrong.

Now that I've ended my 3D profession and have much more time so I started to re-study stock market knowledge in these 2 months. An old friend recommended Mr. Weinstein's book. I was so amazed (stunned actually) after reading the Chinese version of this master piece and decided to follow his method right away. So I bought the original English book and I'm reading both versions for the second time. With the original version I found some mistakes of translation in the Chinese book. Read two books at the same time is time and energy consuming, but I start to understand the whole picture gradually, which is intellectually fun and joyful. After leaving the school for such a long time (my major is nutritional biochemistry) I am so happy for having a chance to study like a college student again.

I stumbled across this website when searching for methods to write the Mansfield RS zero line (now I know it's the 52-week MA of itself). I've gone through all posts of this Introduce Yourself Here! thread and got some basic ideas about updating the whole trading system in Mr. Weinstein's book with modern indicators and tools. Now I am ready to read the "Beginner's Questions" and "Market Breadth Update" threads. As for the original thread in T2W created by istrader and the new "Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis" thread on this forum, they are too many posts there so maybe I need much more time to digest them after my second tour of the book.

I want to thank isatrader for creating such a amazing site. With your and other senior members' passion I believe I can dive deeply into Mr. Weinstein's method and find my way there. Hopefully I can contribute my own knowledge to this site in the future.

Guess I am the only (at least the first) Asian to speak here, haha. Here are some of my questions. Hope they are not too stupid and someone can give me some advises:

Hi Acon,

Welcome to the site.

You're not the first Asian member actually, as we've had paying members from the Philippines, Singapore and China a few years back. But no one active at the moment I believe.

It sounds like you are diving head first into learning to trade. It is very exciting at first and can be all consuming. But over time you'll find the method that most suits you and also the timeframe that does, as Stage Analysis is not for everyone. Especially traders looking for very short term trades i.e. hours or a few days. As the Trader method is meant for holding for multiple weeks up to around four months, and the Investor method is for around up to 12 months holding time. So if you want really short term then SA is not the right method, as it's best suited for investors, as it takes time for the Stages to play out, and so requires a lot of patience.

(2016-01-14, 06:04 AM)Acon Wrote: (1) Mr. Weinstein talked about his method basically on American market, but I saw some members coming from different corners of the world use Mr. Weinstein’s method to trade in their own market, which makes me wonder if his method a universal principle and can fit to all the markets on earth? In my case, Taiwanese market is a small and shallow one and easily manipulated so I don’t think stage analysis is a good strategy here.

From my experience with it, it works on all stock markets. But works best the more liquidity there is in the market.

(2016-01-14, 06:04 AM)Acon Wrote: (2) Which stockbroker do you recommend if I want to use the method on American market? Since different stockbrokers have different way to charge the commission fee, and stage analysis don’t need you to buy and sell at a very high frequency, I guess there must be a better choice to reduce your cost of trading. (Of course the stability, data availability, trading software and the variety of trading targets are concerns too)

I can't really recommend what brokers as it's different for each country you are in. But I believe a number of traders use IB on here.

(2016-01-14, 06:04 AM)Acon Wrote: 3) I noticed that members here tend to use some screening sites like StockCharts.com, Chartmill.com and independent softwares like ProRealTime or ShareScope to collect data, create indicators/charts and screen your targets. But why don’t you just use the software that stockbrokers provided –like Trader WorkStation 4 from Interactive Broker - to do so?

Broker based chart programs don't generally have the same functionality that you can find on sites like stockcharts.com, I used them for years for screening, charts, and custom scans etc. Haven't found anything better personally for Weinstein's method.

(2016-01-14, 06:04 AM)Acon Wrote: 4) As for the sites, a website mentioned by its creator here in this thread:
http://www.nextbigtrade.com
I found it can list highly organized screener results for stage analyst in its screener page with stage of the index, % of stocks on each stage in different sectors. Looks handy and promising. Anybody have experience on this website?

The screener is ok for a general overview of the market, but the Stages aren't entirely accurate as they are created using various automated criteria which isn't always accurate I've found. Unfortunately with Stage Analysis there's only one way to determine the Stages properly - which is to look at the charts manually on the various timescales, such as monthly, weekly and daily, and then work out the Stage. It's a very visual method, and requires time and practice to learn properly.

(2016-01-14, 06:04 AM)Acon Wrote: 5) Finally, I noticed that there is no need to subscribe the elite membership anymore to see all the sections on this website. Why? I can pay for the membership if the price is reasonable.

I can't provide the same level as service as I could back in 2013-15, when I was doing around four hours a day on here of screening and posting, due to work commitments. So I've opened up access to the site to everyone that registers as a member as my posts are more infrequent nowadays. However, I may add a donate button to the site in the near future, so people can help towards the running costs if they would like.


RE: Introduce yourself here! - Acon - 2016-01-15

Thanks for your reply isatrader. You are right, I spent my money on day trading courses and swing trading (days~weeks) courses. In that meanwhile I listened to my friend's advise - who is a very good fundamentalist - to buy some stocks and hold them (until now). Lost some money on every way there.

Now I know my problem. I need to find a method that suit my personality best and stick to it, not grabbing everything that looks cool. I found stage analysis might be the best way for me. Since I am getting older so trading within range of days is too consuming to me. What I need most is patience, and I know that's the key of SA. So hoping I am right about its potential and have that patience and perseverance to the last.

Glad to know there are other believers of this method in Asia.

I want to invest/trade in American market so maybe I'll give IB a try. It's not hard to open an IB account here in Taiwan.

And thank you for the insight on nextbigtrade.com and stockcharts.com, I'll study them, especially the latter. I am glad to hear your conclusion about stage analysis; having to analyse the charts manually keep our human mind still competitive against those complex mathematical program trading, which is a good news for real humans. Smile

Also thank you for your generosity to open the whole forum. Will definitely donate to it if I start to earn some money.

Cheers,
Acon