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RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - StageAnalysis - 2014-08-21

(2014-08-21, 01:18 PM)Tryst Wrote: What do you think the likely hood is of a pullback to test support at 180?

The first pullback after the Stage 2A breakout is the one that normally pulls back all the way to the breakout level, and so imo it's had that pullback and continued higher, although it didn't pullback all the way to 180, which is a sign of some strength in the stock. The only thing that's missing from the technical attributes is continued strong volume since the breakout, which has only remained around average to date. So that's what puts me off personally as I'm only looking for stocks showing an exceptional volume build following the Stage 2A breakout. But with UK stocks it can be quite rare, which is why I find myself trading more US stocks than UK stocks.

(2014-08-21, 01:18 PM)Tryst Wrote: In saying that, what do you think are the signs/indicators are for stocks that breakout and don't retrace and retest support (prior resistance) compared to those stocks that don't?

Exceptional volume that continues to build week on week, lack of near term resistance and a big base period doesn't hurt either.

P.S. Am using the StageAnalysis username, as I'm out and about and couldn't remember my isatrader username


RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion - malaguti - 2014-08-21

Anglo American is looking like it wants to break out to stage 2..anyone else getting that feeling?

On another topic as I was perusing various charts..I was looking at the mansfield relative strength indicator. Has anyone else noticed its ability as a standalone indictator? Possibly created a strategy and tested buy and sell on a break of the zero line. Uncanny trend trading indicator it seems. Just a thought


RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion - StageAnalysis - 2014-08-21

(2014-08-21, 03:56 PM)malaguti Wrote: Anglo American is looking like it wants to break out to stage 2..anyone else getting that feeling?

It's been flirting with the top of it Stage 1 range for a while now, much like GEMD.L did, which broke out into Stage 2A a month ago. My main issue with it is that others in the mining group have shown better relative performance to date. But if it manages to break out into Stage 2A on some exceptional volume, then it would be interesting to me, as it's formed a nice big base, and is close to clearing near term resistance. But without a dramatic volume increase following a breakout, it would be less interesting.


(2014-08-21, 03:56 PM)malaguti Wrote: On another topic as I was perusing various charts..I was looking at the mansfield relative strength indicator. Has anyone else noticed its ability as a standalone indictator? Possibly created a strategy and tested buy and sell on a break of the zero line. Uncanny trend trading indicator it seems. Just a thought

I did a fair bit of backtesting on it when I was first learning the method and found as a standalone indicator it had too many whipsaws, although less if you use the 52 week setting. But it is excellent way to scan for late Stage 1 / early Stage 2 candidates, and is much better if you combine the scan with 2x weekly average volume and/or a breakout to new 52 week highs for a further filter.


RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion - malaguti - 2014-08-21

(2014-08-21, 04:52 PM)StageAnalysis Wrote:
(2014-08-21, 03:56 PM)malaguti Wrote: Anglo American is looking like it wants to break out to stage 2..anyone else getting that feeling?

It's been flirting with the top of it Stage 1 range for a while now, much like GEMD.L did, which broke out into Stage 2A a month ago. My main issue with it is that others in the mining group have shown better relative performance to date. But if it manages to break out into Stage 2A on some exceptional volume, then it would be interesting to me, as it's formed a nice big base, and is close to clearing near term resistance. But without a dramatic volume increase following a breakout, it would be less interesting.


(2014-08-21, 03:56 PM)malaguti Wrote: On another topic as I was perusing various charts..I was looking at the mansfield relative strength indicator. Has anyone else noticed its ability as a standalone indictator? Possibly created a strategy and tested buy and sell on a break of the zero line. Uncanny trend trading indicator it seems. Just a thought

I did a fair bit of backtesting on it when I was first learning the method and found as a standalone indicator it had too many whipsaws, although less if you use the 52 week setting. But it is excellent way to scan for late Stage 1 / early Stage 2 candidates, and is much better if you combine the scan with 2x weekly average volume and/or a breakout to new 52 week highs for a further filter.

GEMD, I was in, then out when it broke down through the MA and didn't look into it again. Kicking myself for getting in too early when I should have waited for a proper break of resistance! Also I'm very much waiting for the sector to show some more promise.
Alas. As for the Mansfield, the Pro real time version defaults to 52 and have definitely noticed a little whipsaw but not that much. I tried looking at the screener but for some reason it says that indicator can't be used, either as a backtest or as a screener. How did you manage to get around that if you don't mind?


RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion - StageAnalysis - 2014-08-21

(2014-08-21, 06:56 PM)malaguti Wrote: As for the Mansfield, the Pro real time version defaults to 52 and have definitely noticed a little whipsaw but not that much. I tried looking at the screener but for some reason it says that indicator can't be used, either as a backtest or as a screener. How did you manage to get around that if you don't mind?

I've not managed to be able to code it in Prorealtime, as it's not allowed to be used in the screener for some reason. I did code it in my other chart software, ProTA Gold a while ago, and tested it through that though. But like I said, you do get a fair bit of whipsaw. But it was a while ago and I think one more condition that I didn't know about in the past could really help to improve it now, which is to include that the zero line itself is rising when it crosses above it. As my research has shown that Stage 2A breakouts are much more successful when the zero line is flat or rising as well, and is now one of the key requirements when looking for candidates with A+ potential, as well as the all important dramatic volume increase on the Stage 2A breakout week, and in the following up weeks also.


RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - MalcolmSm1th - 2014-08-21

Well, this certainly has a long enough base. Almost five years of it!

There are two things about this stock which does concern me (then again I seem to be the only one with this worry so perhaps I ought to learn to ditch it).

Firstly for the overall price moevement the grapgh looks volatile. It can spend months trading in a range of thirty pence but each day it could move five or ten pence. Secondly, and this is where I am perhaps in a fiield of one; the market share is rather low.

Having said that, I do think that yesterday's breakout was very positive though I won't be on this one but I will be watching it to see what I can learn from it.

- Malc


RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - isatrader - 2014-08-21

For the UK watchlist today - TUNG.L (IPO base breakout attempt to new highs. Lovely cup and handle pattern, but no volume increase as yet to confirm), and FLK.L made a further Stage 2 continuation breakout attempt, but very thin stock.

[attachment=12807][attachment=12808]


RE: UK Stocks - Watchlist and Discussion (Premium) - Tryst - 2014-08-21

(2014-08-21, 02:23 PM)StageAnalysis Wrote:
(2014-08-21, 01:18 PM)Tryst Wrote: What do you think the likely hood is of a pullback to test support at 180?

The first pullback after the Stage 2A breakout is the one that normally pulls back all the way to the breakout level, and so imo it's had that pullback and continued higher, although it didn't pullback all the way to 180, which is a sign of some strength in the stock. The only thing that's missing from the technical attributes is continued strong volume since the breakout, which has only remained around average to date. So that's what puts me off personally as I'm only looking for stocks showing an exceptional volume build following the Stage 2A breakout. But with UK stocks it can be quite rare, which is why I find myself trading more US stocks than UK stocks.

(2014-08-21, 01:18 PM)Tryst Wrote: In saying that, what do you think are the signs/indicators are for stocks that breakout and don't retrace and retest support (prior resistance) compared to those stocks that don't?

Exceptional volume that continues to build week on week, lack of near term resistance and a big base period doesn't hurt either.

P.S. Am using the StageAnalysis username, as I'm out and about and couldn't remember my isatrader username

Thanks for the comments both.

Here is what looks to be in a stage 1, and for a very long time (for the best part of 2 and a half years). It looks to be brewing up an attempt to breakout into a stage 2A.

Again, this is a diamond equity and they are doing quite strongly at the moment.

[attachment=12809]