(2018-07-28, 10:33 AM)pcabc Wrote: I have several motivations.  To see if I can do it well, to see if I can get an indicator that helps me not make bad entries, possible use in screening and perhaps help with market breadth estimations.  I did wonder whether I could use such an indicator with an index / sector ETFs using the investors method?  I'm trying to whittle down the subjectivity, but man-in-the-loop is required as noisy data, or patterns you did not have in mind designing the filter always seem to get through.

yes, and mine too, as well being able to categorically identify the profitability

Quote:I don't think the drop in 2016 is a stage 4, but at the end of the day who cares?
we would have been taken out with our stop loss anyway. so it all becomes pretty moot to be honest trying to worry about a stage 3 or stage 4 exit as we should have taken our profit by then. and the stop loss is going to be nigh on impossible to really get right, so all we're doing it for is the entry

The close was below the falling MA, there are lower highs and lower lows.  On this basis definitely stage 4.    However, stages 2 and 4 are well defined, whereas 1 and 3 seem more subjective.  Since any MA will only be perfectly flat (not rising or falling) using a simple decision based on the position of the close wrt to the MA and its slope will whipsaw around 2 & 4.

I Disagree, I see there is both horizontal support and a long running trendline going back to 2009. there is also just one lower high. it was nothing more than a zig zag/ABC correction in my opinion. anyway, thats the subjectivity of it all. I feel as though we look to move to stage 4 far too quickly. a sloping SMA is just one part of it, we need to have that break of support as confirmation of entry, just in the same way as stage 2

after a point made by ISA, stage 1 and stage 3 have become quite straightforward now as i see it. as soon as you have a close, lower or higher than the SMA, you are in a stage 3 or 1. which makes the stage 2 and 4 the more important to identify

Quote:now, if i could code a double or triple top breakout where the SMA on the candle chart is sloping up, i'd be an extremely happy man. and my coding skills are just not good enough. you will be the first to hear by the way if i do manage it!!

Yes, how that works is quite tricky to conceptualise from a coding perspective.  I have a couple of screeners.  One which ranks stocks based on a number of parameters including volume, breakout from channels, MAs and another which detects breakouts from manually entered trendlines. I usually set the trendlines based on the output of the first filter.

I think the core of this would be detecting whether the price today was higher than the upper limit of a channel yesterday / last week.  Effectively automatically setting a flat breakout level.  Won't work for sloped breakout levels.  OTOH I think the flat approach hits many.

indeed, flat is much easier. thats why I chose the donchian channel. we could always put it to the test. choose any stock, where would a break of the 20period donchian get us in. 

I don't think there is a perfect screener.  The best we can do is to use several good screeners.

Just to add PCABC, im enjoying the collaboration with you

(2018-07-28, 10:58 AM)malaguti Wrote:

(2018-07-28, 10:33 AM)pcabc Wrote: I have several motivations.  To see if I can do it well, to see if I can get an indicator that helps me not make bad entries, possible use in screening and perhaps help with market breadth estimations.  I did wonder whether I could use such an indicator with an index / sector ETFs using the investors method?  I'm trying to whittle down the subjectivity, but man-in-the-loop is required as noisy data, or patterns you did not have in mind designing the filter always seem to get through.

yes, and mine too, as well being able to categorically identify the profitability

Quote:I don't think the drop in 2016 is a stage 4, but at the end of the day who cares?
we would have been taken out with our stop loss anyway. so it all becomes pretty moot to be honest trying to worry about a stage 3 or stage 4 exit as we should have taken our profit by then. and the stop loss is going to be nigh on impossible to really get right, so all we're doing it for is the entry

The close was below the falling MA, there are lower highs and lower lows.  On this basis definitely stage 4.    However, stages 2 and 4 are well defined, whereas 1 and 3 seem more subjective.  Since any MA will only be perfectly flat (not rising or falling) using a simple decision based on the position of the close wrt to the MA and its slope will whipsaw around 2 & 4.

I Disagree, I see there is both horizontal support and a long running trendline going back to 2009. there is also just one lower high. it was nothing more than a zig zag/ABC correction in my opinion. anyway, thats the subjectivity of it all. I feel as though we look to move to stage 4 far too quickly. a sloping SMA is just one part of it, we need to have that break of support as confirmation of entry, just in the same way as stage 2

after a point made by ISA, stage 1 and stage 3 have become quite straightforward now as i see it. as soon as you have a close, lower or higher than the SMA, you are in a stage 3 or 1. which makes the stage 2 and 4 the more important to identify

Quote:now, if i could code a double or triple top breakout where the SMA on the candle chart is sloping up, i'd be an extremely happy man. and my coding skills are just not good enough. you will be the first to hear by the way if i do manage it!!

Yes, how that works is quite tricky to conceptualise from a coding perspective.  I have a couple of screeners.  One which ranks stocks based on a number of parameters including volume, breakout from channels, MAs and another which detects breakouts from manually entered trendlines. I usually set the trendlines based on the output of the first filter.

I think the core of this would be detecting whether the price today was higher than the upper limit of a channel yesterday / last week.  Effectively automatically setting a flat breakout level.  Won't work for sloped breakout levels.  OTOH I think the flat approach hits many.

indeed, flat is much easier. thats why I chose the donchian channel. we could always put it to the test. choose any stock, where would a break of the 20period donchian get us in. 

I don't think there is a perfect screener.  The best we can do is to use several good screeners.

Just to add PCABC, im enjoying the collaboration with you

(2018-07-28, 11:53 AM)badcharts Wrote: Hi Guys!

I stumbled on this Mansfield RSI on tradingview.com. It's all good, as long as I stick to that platform. The code is protected.

What I find cool about it, it coded some of the stuff you two are talking about.

Extract from https://www.tradingview.com/v/H6bYp0Zb/ 

"...
BUY & HOLD Conditions (green): 
1. Mansfield Relative Strength is above the zero line 
2. Price is above the Simple Moving Average (30) 
3. Simple Moving Average (30) is rising 

SELL & HOLD Conditions (red): 
1. Mansfield Relative Strength is below the zero line 
2. Price is below the Simple Moving Average (30) 
3. Simple Moving Average (30) is falling 
..."

I would love to have a crack at the code, then start an additonal "dark green" overlay starting when all these additonal conditions are met:
1. Candle close above Ichimoku resistance cloud (for that Stan criteria, no close overhead resistance)
2. First green volume candle with 2x average previous 4 weeks.

Inverse that for a "dark red" overlay when:
1. Candle close below Ichimoku support cloud 
2. Do not need volume confirmation for breakdown Stage 4.

That would bring us one step closer to having a strategy/indicator to play out Stan's framework. Note: there is a"pine" script editor on Tradingview, and I Googled some conversion tools to bring those to amibroker.. maybe more tools out there...

Let me know what you think!

Regards,

Patrick

(2018-07-28, 12:08 PM)malaguti Wrote:

(2018-07-28, 11:53 AM)badcharts Wrote: Hi Guys!

I stumbled on this Mansfield RSI on tradingview.com. It's all good, as long as I stick to that platform. The code is protected.

What I find cool about it, it coded some of the stuff you two are talking about.

Extract from https://www.tradingview.com/v/H6bYp0Zb/ 

"...
BUY & HOLD Conditions (green): 
1. Mansfield Relative Strength is above the zero line 
2. Price is above the Simple Moving Average (30) 
3. Simple Moving Average (30) is rising 

SELL & HOLD Conditions (red): 
1. Mansfield Relative Strength is below the zero line 
2. Price is below the Simple Moving Average (30) 
3. Simple Moving Average (30) is falling 
..."

I would love to have a crack at the code, then start an additonal "dark green" overlay starting when all these additonal conditions are met:
1. Candle close above Ichimoku resistance cloud (for that Stan criteria, no close overhead resistance)
2. First green volume candle with 2x average previous 4 weeks.

Inverse that for a "dark red" overlay when:
1. Candle close below Ichimoku support cloud 
2. Do not need volume confirmation for breakdown Stage 4.

That would bring us one step closer to having a strategy/indicator to play out Stan's framework. Note: there is a"pine" script editor on Tradingview, and I Googled some conversion tools to bring those to amibroker.. maybe more tools out there...

Let me know what you think!

Regards,

Patrick

thanks Patrick, yes I noticed the indicator on those colourful charts of yours!. I also liked the easy to see mansfield along with the slope
I would like to do the same with prorealtime/amibroker. I have the basics of the stages, so it shouldn't be too difficult in theory
how do you incorporate the cloud into your analysis however?
do you say a stage 4 is below the cloud, stage 2 above ie is that a condition for entry? I know ISA "lovingly" uses the ichi cloud 

(2018-07-28, 10:58 AM)malaguti Wrote:

(2018-07-28, 10:33 AM)pcabc Wrote: I don't think the drop in 2016 is a stage 4, but at the end of the day who cares?

Quote:we would have been taken out with our stop loss anyway. so it all becomes pretty moot to be honest trying to worry about a stage 3 or stage 4 exit as we should have taken our profit by then. and the stop loss is going to be nigh on impossible to really get right, so all we're doing it for is the entry

The close was below the falling MA, there are lower highs and lower lows.  On this basis definitely stage 4.    However, stages 2 and 4 are well defined, whereas 1 and 3 seem more subjective.  Since any MA will only be perfectly flat (not rising or falling) using a simple decision based on the position of the close wrt to the MA and its slope will whipsaw around 2 & 4.

I Disagree, I see there is both horizontal support and a long running trendline going back to 2009. there is also just one lower high. it was nothing more than a zig zag/ABC correction in my opinion. anyway, thats the subjectivity of it all. I feel as though we look to move to stage 4 far too quickly. a sloping SMA is just one part of it, we need to have that break of support as confirmation of entry, just in the same way as stage 2

Quite, because depite the points I raised, it looks like it is noving sideways rather than a clear trend.  As you say subjectrive so there will always be areas for differences of opinion.  But as you say, detail not necessarily important, it is quite clear that would have been a bad time to go long.

Quote:after a point made by ISA, stage 1 and stage 3 have become quite straightforward now as i see it. as soon as you have a close, lower or higher than the SMA, you are in a stage 3 or 1. which makes the stage 2 and 4 the more important to identify

Does that not encourage whipsaws as it will report stage 1/3 if you have a single day dip below a strongly rising MA?  I think however, this depends on the design of the estimator.

...

Quote:indeed, flat is much easier. thats why I chose the donchian channel. we could always put it to the test. choose any stock, where would a break of the 20period donchian get us in. 

That has given me an idea, take my doncian channel code and add or subtract the MA as appropriate, so the channel follows the MA.  I'll have try it and see what happens.

Quote:I don't think there is a perfect screener.  The best we can do is to use several good screeners.

Just to add PCABC, im enjoying the collaboration with you

(2018-07-28, 11:53 AM)badcharts Wrote: Let me know what you think!

Regards,

Patrick

(2018-07-28, 11:35 AM)isatrader Wrote: To add to your discussion. I find one of the best ways to help identify the index Stages is to use the Percentage of stocks above their 150 day MA data for that index. For example:

60% and above: Stage 2
41 to 59% range: Stages 1 or 3
Below 40%: Stage 4

These are rough figures. But for the most part are fairly good estimations when combined with significant breakout levels and various other measures that we look for to determine the Stages. So might be a good additional parameter to add to your screener if you can get the data for it as an additional test into your screener.