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+--- Thread: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions (/Thread-Stage-Analysis-Beginners-Questions)
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RE: Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2014-05-28
(2014-05-28, 05:40 PM)Tom Wrote: An update on what happened: I sold MSO because it was forming a Head and Shoulder Top since the two shoulders form a trendline and the volume occurred on right shoulder wasn't heaviest. But It didn't fall after forming of the right shoulder. I am still scratching my head and trying to learn from this...
As I said previously MSO moved into Stage 3A at the end of April, which the definition is "Stage 3A - Looks as if a top is starting to form. Be sure to protect holdings with a close stop." and hence is not a time to be initiating a new position or adding to already open position, as you should only be buying when in Stage 2 if you are following the methods rules.
I'm not sure about the head and shoulders pattern you were seeing, as the last time we spoke about it, it only had a left shoulder and potential head, as it was testing the previous swing low, which it only breached by a tiny amount and so the stop loss you had should have held and hence the method would still have kept you in it to this day.
The stop loss would still be in the same position, and you would be watching it closely for signs of weakness as the broad market continues to develop in Late Stage 2 / Early Stage 3.
RE: Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2014-05-28
(2014-05-28, 05:40 PM)Tom Wrote: I would like to have someone exam my trading method, please.
I am holding MPET from Nasdaq. It has a two year stage 1 base and I purchased it when it broke out in Feb. Sold half of position during the peak time - my reason is that the support range was around 2.5 - 2.27 from Jan, 2011.
For the other half of the position, I have sell-stop around 1.7 since it has a valid trendline. Since Mid May, MPET has been in correction and is forming support around 1.9. I plan to keep trailing it with my sell-stop.
Does it sound alright? Did I miss anything?
I can't see anything wrong in that approach with regards to the method as you have you sell stop in place and the correction has been on declining volume so far. So hopefully it will hold up for you and rebound higher again. Good luck.
RE: Beginners Questions - Tom - 2014-05-29
(2014-05-28, 07:13 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2014-05-28, 05:40 PM)Tom Wrote: An update on what happened: I sold MSO because it was forming a Head and Shoulder Top since the two shoulders form a trendline and the volume occurred on right shoulder wasn't heaviest. But It didn't fall after forming of the right shoulder. I am still scratching my head and trying to learn from this...
As I said previously MSO moved into Stage 3A at the end of April, which the definition is "Stage 3A - Looks as if a top is starting to form. Be sure to protect holdings with a close stop." and hence is not a time to be initiating a new position or adding to already open position, as you should only be buying when in Stage 2 if you are following the methods rules.
I'm not sure about the head and shoulders pattern you were seeing, as the last time we spoke about it, it only had a left shoulder and potential head, as it was testing the previous swing low, which it only breached by a tiny amount and so the stop loss you had should have held and hence the method would still have kept you in it to this day.
The stop loss would still be in the same position, and you would be watching it closely for signs of weakness as the broad market continues to develop in Late Stage 2 / Early Stage 3.
Argh! You are right that it was not a head and shoulders top pattern. I read the chart wrong!
Now that lesson goes into my trading journal. thank you.
(2014-05-28, 08:39 PM)isatrader Wrote:(2014-05-28, 05:40 PM)Tom Wrote: I would like to have someone exam my trading method, please.
I am holding MPET from Nasdaq. It has a two year stage 1 base and I purchased it when it broke out in Feb. Sold half of position during the peak time - my reason is that the support range was around 2.5 - 2.27 from Jan, 2011.
For the other half of the position, I have sell-stop around 1.7 since it has a valid trendline. Since Mid May, MPET has been in correction and is forming support around 1.9. I plan to keep trailing it with my sell-stop.
Does it sound alright? Did I miss anything?
I can't see anything wrong in that approach with regards to the method as you have you sell stop in place and the correction has been on declining volume so far. So hopefully it will hold up for you and rebound higher again. Good luck.
Thanks for reviewing my method.
I noticed that the trend line from your weekly chart is sharper than the stockchart weekly chart. Your weekly trendline could reach $2 but stockchart is around $1.7. Does it make difference?
RE: Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2014-05-29
(2014-05-29, 02:29 AM)Tom Wrote: I noticed that the trend line from your weekly chart is sharper than the stockchart weekly chart. Your weekly trendline could reach $2 but stockchart is around $1.7. Does it make difference?
I'm not sure what you mean. My chart has the same logarithmic scale as yours does and also I didn't draw a trend line on it?
But either way, trend lines are always subjective, so I tend not to use them personally and instead use the 10 week MA and 50 day MA in their place, and watch how stocks react around those levels. So currently for MPET the 10 week MA is at 1.91 and the 50 day MA is at 1.83 and yesterday was the first time the 50 day MA had been touched since the initial Stage 2A breakout began in February.
I think you've got your stop in a reasonable spot below the April swing high of 1.72 and the 50 day MA of 1.83, as you'd want to see it find support around that area.
RE: Beginners Questions - Tom - 2014-05-29
(2014-05-29, 11:17 AM)isatrader Wrote:(2014-05-29, 02:29 AM)Tom Wrote: I noticed that the trend line from your weekly chart is sharper than the stockchart weekly chart. Your weekly trendline could reach $2 but stockchart is around $1.7. Does it make difference?
I'm not sure what you mean. My chart has the same logarithmic scale as yours does and also I didn't draw a trend line on it?
But either way, trend lines are always subjective, so I tend not to use them personally and instead use the 10 week MA and 50 day MA in their place, and watch how stocks react around those levels. So currently for MPET the 10 week MA is at 1.91 and the 50 day MA is at 1.83 and yesterday was the first time the 50 day MA had been touched since the initial Stage 2A breakout began in February.
I think you've got your stop in a reasonable spot below the April swing high of 1.72 and the 50 day MA of 1.83, as you'd want to see it find support around that area.
thanks for confirming my method. It helps in great deal as I am learning Stan's method.
BTW, You didn't draw the trendline but it is there when I connected the three point in your chart, the line ends around $2. Hence my question.
I often found myself uncertain the timing of selling when the stock remains bullish. Then I gradually learned to use trendline , previous support level to shave my positions a little. Thanks for bringing up the 10 week MA as another measure for selling as I just vaguely remember it from the technically speaking book now.
RE: Beginners Questions - MalcolmSm1th - 2014-06-16
Shorting via Spread Betting on the LSE.
Is anyone else banging their heads on the wall when trying to find someone who will allow one to short a stock? I looked through a good number of stocks which were in the line for shorting on the other thread this morning and every one that I looked at were available for shorting on a daily basis only.
Is this normal and, if so, what does the panel here do, if they do anything at all?
- Malc
RE: Beginners Questions - shaunattwood - 2014-06-16
Malc,
Most of the property shorts in the thread are available to short as CFD's via IG Markets if you follow this link: http://www.ig.com/uk/spread-betting-cfds-margin#lb-tiered
Click on "share CFD's" and a document should open listing what's available.
Click on Find (top right hand corner) and enter a share symbol, so for example
HWDN comes up shortable with 15% deposit
BDEV 5%
TW 10%
SHI 15% etc
I recommend IG Market's L2 platform, which allows you to make bids and offers, so you can join the market makers and not have to pay the spread.
RE: Beginners Questions - MalcolmSm1th - 2014-06-16
Thanks, Shaun. However, I can't seem to find anything. I will give them a call tomorrow as I could use a pointless exercise talking to someone on a Help Desk.