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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-08-14

(2020-08-14, 01:32 PM)ianbate222 Wrote: Hi Isa, 
I am looking at Weinstein's book where he discusses signs of market tops. I am now following your market health indicators and wonder if they flashed a warning sign before the market top in February. So far based on your market health indicators  that you post weekly the market looks healthy.

Good job with the Udemy stage analysis course. Lots to learn there from you.
Ian

Thanks Ian, yes there were various signs of weakness appearing in the market breadth that made me go to cash and gold well before the crash. See the video post here:

https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/18540/us-market-breadth-short-term-stock-market-top-warning-signs-appearing-in-indicators


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - ianbate222 - 2020-08-14

This is truly fantastic. I wish I knew about this method and your site before then as I lost a lot of money following ew analysis thinking the s+p was headed to 4000 only to watch everything crash. Objective evidence over subjective guesses rule every time and that was a painfull lesson for me.

Your Udemy course is great but I know I need to keep going over the sections as sometimes stage 1 stocks are not so easy for me to distinguish. Lots to learn but I really like the rigorous methodology. I am itching to buy some stocks but forcing myself to be disciplined and staying away based on what I am learning in your course. Thanks for your market health indicators and the videos you post from time to time discussing the overall health of the market. This is a very valuable resource.

Ian.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-08-14

Thanks Ian, that's very kind of you to say. Yes, take you time. The method is simple in principle, but there's a lot to learn, and so takes time to train yourself be able to see the characteristics that we look for. But stick with it, and always remember to manage your risk.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - the_manassa_mauler - 2020-08-14

(2020-08-05, 08:56 PM)Haugaard Wrote:
(2020-08-05, 08:34 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: New to this thread. Need clarity on Weinstein MA..... I just deep dived his book and was impressed by his system. However, I need help in re to clearing up his MA methods. Heres my questions, I would appreciate any insight on this:

1. He uses a 30 week WMA in the book. I use bigcharts.com. They don't have a WMA option, only EMA & SMA. Also they require you to put in days, not weeks. Therefore, should I be using 150 days and go with EMA or SMA? .... I googled and found conflicting info on this. Some say you should use 200 EMA b/c that would be closest to a 30 week WMA. This site is the best I've come across, so I'm assuming members in here can clear this up.

2. wouldn't EMA be a more accurate method projecting forward on buys w/ stocks as opposed to SMA?

3. is WMA still used by many or is it a dated method back to the publishing period of the book? is it any better then EMA or SMA? 

4. on bigcharts.com, if I want to look at a weekly chart instead of a daily, then do I need to go back and use the 30 week number on the EMA chart as opposed to 150 or 200 day since its a weekly chart?

5. finally, are there better free charting services then bigcharts.com that anyone would recommend?

thanks for any help

First and foremost, welcome to the site.

1. Just use SMA with 150 as 30w. 

2. SA preaches 30w SMA, and therefore we follow suit.

3. There is no difference between WMA and SMA other than the fact that WMA is calculated in weeks and SMA in bars. As before, just use 150 for 30W. For this method and others that are alike the use of SMA is preferred.

4. If you look at a weekly chart u just insert 30 into SMA. As the SMA is then calculated on the previous 30 bars. So when the chart style is in weeks, use 30, when in days, use 150.

5. I've been using tradingview for the beginning of my trading career. Just now i've switched to StockCharts.com. But tradingview.com is more than enough for most.

Let me know if you have any further questions.

All the best,
Marcus Hauugard

thanks for the info Marcus. well appreciated..... ques., are stockcharts.com & tradingview.com services free or do they charge an annual fee?


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-08-14

(2020-08-14, 09:17 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: thanks for the info Marcus. well appreciated..... ques., are stockcharts.com & tradingview.com services free or do they charge an annual fee?

Both have free charting available. But the subscriptions can be worth it imo if you are serious about your trading. I use the Extra service on stockcharts which is about $25 a month. But that lets you use their excellent custom screener, store hundreds of chartlists, and get real time data via the Bats exchange. You have to pay another $10 for real time data from the nasdaq & nyse with proper volume data etc.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - the_manassa_mauler - 2020-08-14

(2020-08-14, 04:00 PM)ianbate222 Wrote: This is truly fantastic. I wish I knew about this method and your site before then as I lost a lot of money following ew analysis thinking the s+p was headed to 4000 only to watch everything crash. Objective evidence over subjective guesses rule every time and that was a painfull lesson for me.

Your Udemy course is great but I know I need to keep going over the sections as sometimes stage 1 stocks are not so easy for me to distinguish. Lots to learn but I really like the rigorous methodology. I am itching to buy some stocks but forcing myself to be disciplined and staying away based on what I am learning in your course. Thanks for your market health indicators and the videos you post from time to time discussing the overall health of the market. This is a very valuable resource.

Ian.

Ian. or Marcus, .... curious, what does the acronym, 'ew analysis' mean or stand for? ... I ran into some of the problems your talking about, so I want to get further clarification.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - the_manassa_mauler - 2020-08-14

(2020-08-14, 09:30 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2020-08-14, 09:17 PM)the_manassa_mauler Wrote: thanks for the info Marcus. well appreciated..... ques., are stockcharts.com & tradingview.com services free or do they charge an annual fee?

Both have free charting available. But the subscriptions can be worth it imo if you are serious about your trading. I use the Extra service on stockcharts which is about $25 a month. But that lets you use their excellent custom screener, store hundreds of chartlists, and get real time data via the Bats exchange. You have to pay another $10 for real time data from the nasdaq & nyse with proper volume data etc.

thank you  Smile


RE: Beginners Questions - the_manassa_mauler - 2020-08-14

(2020-08-06, 11:27 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2020-08-06, 11:18 PM)daddybyday Wrote: Hello,

I think I have a fair handle on identifying the stages, and am decent with breakouts.  My question is, how do you all go about creating the watch list of stocks at which charts you look?  I have some sector ETF's that I'm going to be including, but I'm not sure the best way to pick the stocks?  Once you identify winning sectors/industries, how do you narrow it down from there?

Thanks!

Tom

I actually do it the other way round. I focus on scanning for individual stocks first, as the strongest sectors / industries are easy to spot from the amount of stocks setting up or breaking out in those sectors. But to catch the leader in the sector, you have to get into that stock before the rest of the sector becomes more obvious that a move is happening.

So I find the best looking individual stocks, and then when one stands out I do the due diligence on the rest of the stocks in the sector. As if one is breaking out into Stage 2 on heavy volume and all the other good stuff that we look for, and then the other stocks in the sector are only a little bit behind in late Stage 1, and starting to setup themselves. Then the odds are good that there will be a move in the sector. So I'll try to buy into the leading stock.

Marcus... Your point about finding an early leader w/in the sector first is intriguing & is something that I wish weinstein wouldve gotten into a little more in his book. Your take about seeing a sector just breaking into stage 2 yet leaving you out in missing the leadership w/in that sector wh/ may have already broken into stage 2 a few weeks or so earlier is salient if one is indeed wanting to invest in individual sector leaders early on the breakout.

In the context of that discussion, I have a couple of ques. I'd be interested in hearing your takes on. 

First thing, in regards to myself, let me briefly tell you what my goal is. Weinstein's methods really appeal to me b/c its as objective & non emotional a method as ive seen. furthermore, its s tangible, real time, supply and demand reaction to the market w/ tested charting patterns. that seems more important and viable then just the fundamental health of a companies financial numbers. Ive got burned too much in the past by just going solely on a good company but getting burned by mistiming the investment or the greater forces of the market movements itself. Its why I went to weinstein & here. So w/ that, the questions:

1. part of my strategy is to better invest in my 401 retirement fund & roth ira. There, I am looking mainly to focus on an investment (using weinsteins terminology), not trading strategy. And entity wise, I'm leaning more towards etf's, mutual funds & large cap industry leaders to invest w/. But, I do want to focus on sectors w/in those investment vehicles. Since so many sectors have already left the stage 2 station weeks ago (like technology), would it be wiser for me to look at the sectors that are just now getting ready to initial break out into stage 2 (the laggard sectors in a sense like lets say utilties)? or would it be wiser to wait for a pullback in the leading sectors to healthy MA retest and then make a continuation play?

2. I've researched this site a lot the last week and really like the info. I have a ques wh/ pertains back to ques 1. I looked at the market breadth section of the site & found it great. In particular wh/ really seemed to help w/ ques. 1, is your 2 sector tables of sectors above the 150 MA.  That seems ideal esp for narrowing down to wh/ sector to allocate into w/ sector mutual funds or etf's. The last one I could find however that you did was the june 14th tables. Do you update more frequently on a weekly basis somewhere else? if not, is there somewhere that does this also?

3. I also have an individual account. In this account I want to be more aggressive and use a trader strategy focusing on individual stocks. And as you pointed out, I would like to find early leaders w/in sectors, before the sector even breaks out as a whole. What is my best source to go to to ferret out those stocks that are very close or just broke out into stage 2?

4. lastly, If im reading your daily update correctly, you seem bullish right now on the broader markets (sp 500 etc). Weinstein mentioned in the book the effect of an election year and how it is usually bullish. Even w/ covid, this seems to be falling into place. Do you feel technically from what you are seeing now, that at least until late Oct., that the overall markets can maintain bullishness?

thanks again for your service & time into it, you have a new fan.