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RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - marry123 - 2020-04-20

Hi,
I was wondering why one must wait for SPX and DOW to be over its 30 MA on the weekly  before buying any stocks and not simply buy stocks on QQQ given this index ripped through  its 30 MA weekly a while back and many tech stocks have been ripping higher once they made it above the 30 MA (e.g. SHOP).

Thanks for clarifying.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-04-20

(2020-04-20, 04:03 PM)marry123 Wrote: Hi,
I was wondering why one must wait for SPX and DOW to be over its 30 MA on the weekly  before buying any stocks and not simply buy stocks on QQQ given this index ripped through  its 30 MA weekly a while back and many tech stocks have been ripping higher once they made it above the 30 MA (e.g. SHOP).

Thanks for clarifying.

The volatility at the moment is extreme. 1987 & 2008 was the last comparable events I believe, so the indexes are having moves that we wouldn't normally see and even though the Nasdaq 100 is back above the 30 week MA. It is not in Stage 2 anymore, and I'd suggest that one week above the 30 week MA does not constitute a while.

I'd say it depends on what method that you are using. Trader or Investor. As if Trader method then sure the method would recommend buying stocks in the strongest sectors and selling stocks in the weakest sectors, as we have a split market with small areas of strength, but they would still need to bought at proper trader entry points where you can define your risk. Mark Minervini works along similar lines and has mentioned this on his twitter feed multiple times, as he's been short Dow for the last week and long multiple stocks that have been doing very well.

But if Investor method it would recommend being mostly in cash or alternative assets classes that are in Stage 2 i.e. Gold and Treasuries currently and potentially considering shorting the weakest markets if they rollover.

So it depends on the timeframe you are trading.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - marry123 - 2020-04-20

(2020-04-20, 04:25 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2020-04-20, 04:03 PM)marry123 Wrote: Hi,
I was wondering why one must wait for SPX and DOW to be over its 30 MA on the weekly  before buying any stocks and not simply buy stocks on QQQ given this index ripped through  its 30 MA weekly a while back and many tech stocks have been ripping higher once they made it above the 30 MA (e.g. SHOP).

Thanks for clarifying.

The volatility at the moment is extreme. 1987 & 2008 was the last comparable events I believe, so the indexes are having moves that we wouldn't normally see and even though the Nasdaq 100 is back above the 30 week MA. It is not in Stage 2 anymore, and I'd suggest that one week above the 30 week MA does not constitute a while.

I'd say it depends on what method that you are using. Trader or Investor. As if Trader method then sure the method would recommend buying stocks in the strongest sectors and selling stocks in the weakest sectors, as we have a split market with small areas of strength, but they would still need to bought at proper trader entry points where you can define your risk. Mark Minervini works along similar lines and has mentioned this on his twitter feed multiple times, as he's been short Dow for the last week and long multiple stocks that have been doing very well.

But if Investor method it would recommend being mostly in cash or alternative assets classes that are in Stage 2 i.e. Gold and Treasuries currently and potentially considering shorting the weakest markets if they rollover.

So it depends on the timeframe you are trading.

Thanks Isa, I am more an investor so will continue to sit and wait to see what happens with SPX and DOW.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - Joe725 - 2020-04-20

(2020-04-20, 01:52 PM)isatrader Wrote:
(2020-04-20, 01:34 PM)Joe725 Wrote: Sorry for the spam i'm just trying to find at least a couple of stocks to keep my eyes on, i'm going through the scans be to no avail currently. This one to me looks decent not the best quality due to volume, is this one to watch. I know currently the MA isn't very clear whether its on the decline or not, that's my only concern with the stock. Would this be a stage 2 in general but a relatively weak Stage 2 and to watch if the MA starts to recover.

Yep, this is much more like what you should be looking for, as it reacted well to the recent market collapse and recovered back to the highs quickly, and is now consolidating in a tight range for the last three weeks. Relative strength versus the S&P 500 is strong and there was some volume increase as it recovered back to the highs and broke out. So yes, one for the watchlist.

Thanks! Feels good to have even spotted one at this point haha, should i look at buying back on the pullback or due to poor volume i should just keep tabs on it.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-04-20

(2020-04-20, 06:02 PM)Joe725 Wrote: Thanks! Feels good to have even spotted one at this point haha, should i look at buying back on the pullback or due to poor volume i should just keep tabs on it.

See what I replied to marry123 above. As depends on what method you are using.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - Mashed - 2020-04-21

Hi!

Week chart ROCHE

[Image: 5kLdqnPW]


Day chart ROCHE

[Image: hYwD7kEh]

I like the volume i see in the weekly chart, but is good in the dayly chart? 
Is this spot good? Or is late? 

Thanks guys! And please feel free dont answer if i am asking a lot  Blush

Edit-
By the way, the volumen i can see in TV is green or red. Does mean something? Sometimes i see big red volumen and i dont know if that can be good or bad.


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - Joe725 - 2020-04-21

(2020-04-21, 12:44 AM)Mashed Wrote: Hi!

Week chart ROCHE

[Image: 5kLdqnPW]


Day chart ROCHE

[Image: hYwD7kEh]

I like the volume i see in the weekly chart, but is good in the dayly chart? 
Is this spot good? Or is late? 

Thanks guys! And please feel free dont answer if i am asking a lot  Blush

Edit-
By the way, the volumen i can see in TV is green or red. Does mean something? Sometimes i see big red volumen and i dont know if that can be good or bad.

I am no expert i'm just a beginner like you. To my knowledge the Red and Green volume show buying and selling. So a red volume will show more selling that buying and a green volume shows more buying. 

I'm sure ISATrader will tell you the actual answer, but i think this is too late now. It looks like it's now consolidating at the top end of a stage 2. It think the ideal time was around July '18 when it broke above the MA or December / January after on the pullback. But that's just my opinion i'm sure the more seasoned traders can tell you properly.

(My second arrow went a bit wayward, it's meant to be further right)


RE: Stage Analysis Beginners Questions - isatrader - 2020-04-21

(2020-04-21, 12:44 AM)Mashed Wrote: Is this spot good? Or is late? 

By the way, the volume i can see in TV is green or red. Does mean something? Sometimes i see big red volume and i don't know if that can be good or bad.

It has been over a year since it's Stage 2A entry point, which was very average at the time with no volume pickup. But it did have a strong recovery from the recent market selloff and is trading near the highs again, so there is potential for a possible continuation breakout. But if you are looking to get into stocks early in Stage 2, then you need to focus on stocks that are just breaking out from 6 months to 1 year bases.

As to volume. The colours on your chart just mean which direction the candle closed. So it's red if it was negative day for example.